January lull before summer transfer frenzy begins
No one likes it, you can’t escape it, and you hope it won’t prove painful (or cost too much). That numb sensation you feel afterwards may partly be disappointment, despite the heroic efforts of Sky TV and Jim White, but it’s mainly relief.
Always an uneasy time both for clubs and players, this window has been even more tricky than usual.
Clubs have been wary of splashing the cash in advance of the European finals. Most players are reluctant to move, and because this tournament is much larger than previously many more players are waiting for the chance to impress in June.
Management changes and uncertainties at leading clubs — Real Madrid, Chelsea, Manchester Utd, Porto, Roma and Inter — have also put a damper on the transfer market. Add in Fifa’s transfer bans on the two Madrid clubs and it is not surprising that player agents have been kicking their heels.
The two most significant signings this January may well be Arda Turan and Aleix Vidal, both of which were agreed last summer but have only now been concluded because Barcelona’s transfer ban has come to an end.
Some familiar players who have suffered from being sidelined, such as Paolo de Ceglie (at Marseille on loan from Juventus) and Thomas Vermaelen (at Barcelona) have been linked to possible moves. But the most well-known targets have stayed put.
Look at the prices being quoted and you can understand why. There has been another bout of football inflation, led by the Premier League. Even though English clubs are mostly not buying, the amount of money in the Premier League is pushing up prices in advance of an anticipated summer jamboree.
Asking prices for good players now seem to start at around €35-40 m, even for inexperienced youngsters such as Porto midfielder Ruben Neves, who has made just 60 appearances and is only 19 next month.
Stoke City’s readiness to pay a club record fee of around €24m for his team-mate Gianelli Imbula shows the way the market is moving. He cost Porto €20m last July when he moved from Marseille in a deal apparently financed by outside business interests.
Gzegorz Krychowiak (Sevilla), Granit Xhaka (Borussia Monchengladbach) and Michy Batshuayi (Marseille) are all midfielders that have been scouted by top Premier League clubs — and their price has risen accordingly.
Mauro Icardi, the young Inter striker, is another who is said to be available, but no one has yet been convinced enough to stump up, even though he was top scorer in Serie A last season. Gonzalo Higuain, this season’s goal machine, and previously targeted by Arsenal, would now fetch €60m or more — if Napoli were prepared to sell.
Beyond the Premier League, the new inflationary factor in football is China.
The deal that took Chelsea midfielder Ramires to Jiangsu Suning for around €28 million last week set a new record for Chinese football, which probably won’t be beaten for a while. However, Chinese clubs are now recruiting South American players on the same wages as top-ranking clubs in Europe, which is bound to have a knock-on effect.
All the signs are that we can expect a frenzied transfer market in the summer, especially as Real Madrid and Atletico will be hoping to take advantage of the delay in their transfer bans, just as Barcelona did.
Zinedine Zidane will presumably be looking to strengthen his squad. Likewise Carlo Ancelotti at Bayern Munich and of course Pep Guardiola at Manchester City.
There will be a new man in the hot seat at Stamford Bridge, and quite possibly at Old Trafford. The stage is set for a market that will break all records, and the bidding is likely to start early and continue late.
Whether Uefa’s Financial Fair Play regulations can survive this spending spree, even in a modified form, must be in doubt. Some of the big clubs obviously want to retain FFP, although not the current version.
However, if a free-for-all ensues, and if state-backed investment continues to flood in from the Gulf and China, then it’s hard to see how any form of regulation can be more than a figleaf.
