Munster SHC permutations: how Clare and Limerick victories this weekend settles the top three

The picture will become a lot clearer after this weekend's games. 

Waterford's Paddy Leavy tries to dispossess Cork's Brian Hayes during their Munster Senior Hurling Championship clash at Azzurri Walsh Park.

As was pointed out very shortly after Saturday’s full-time whistle at Walsh Park, a Clare victory in Thurles this weekend closes off so many of the Waterford routes to an unlikely and first-ever top-three finish by the Déise.

Indeed, a Clare victory over Tipperary is one half of two results this weekend that would decide Munster’s top three places with a full round of games still to run.

Clare have never failed to win away to Tipp since the inception of the round-robin. If there is a continuation of the 2018, ‘22, and ‘24 victories, Clare moving to four points in the table would take them beyond the reach of Waterford and the one point they currently possess, irrespective of how they fared against Limerick the following afternoon at the Gaelic Grounds.

Moreover, was a Clare victory at Semple Stadium followed by Limerick winning at home against Peter Queally’s side, Cork, Limerick, and Clare would be immovable from the top three heading into Round 5 on the weekend of May 23/24.

All that would then be left up for grabs across the Cork-Clare and Limerick-Tipp final round games is the make-up of the provincial hurling decider.

With Waterford spectating on that final weekend, here’s what would have to happen across the four remaining games to lift them from fifth to the third in the table.

The most obvious place to start is at the Gaelic Grounds this Sunday and the absolute non-negotiable of Waterford beating Limerick for the first time in the round-robin.

The evening before, neither a Tipp win nor a Tipp-Clare stalemate would be perilous. In fact, they are the two best results to sustain the Déise going into Round 5.

In the scenario of a Tipp win over Clare and Liam Cahill’s side going to three points entering the final weekend, the Premier would then have to lose to Limerick on the last day, with Cork overcoming Clare.

All that leaves Tipp and Waterford tied for third spot on three points. Score difference would then come into play given their head-to-head record is mute following the Walsh Park stalemate at the end of last month.

A Tipp-Clare draw puts Tipp on two points and Clare on three making for the concluding Sunday. In that scenario, a Clare defeat to Cork and Tipp-Limerick finishing level would leave Clare, Limerick, Tipp, and Waterford all tied on three points. Score difference would decide which two of the four progress onto the All-Ireland series.

Staying with a Tipp-Clare draw, a further Tipp-Limerick draw and Clare getting something from Páirc Uí Chaoimh would still keep Waterford in the hunt, creating a three-way tie for third on three points involving themselves, Tipp, and Limerick. Not desirable, mind, given Limerick's +13 is way ahead of everyone else.

Score difference at present shows Waterford's -10 to be marginally worse than Clare's -9 and Tipp's -4.

The least confusing route for Waterford - and for everyone calculating from outside the fence - is for themselves and Clare to win this weekend. That would bring it all down to Tipp-Limerick on the final day. A Tipp win at the Gaelic Grounds has the Premier and Waterford finishing level on three points, bringing score difference into the equation again.

The most straightforward avenue to determining the top three, as mentioned at the top, is Clare and Limerick winning this weekend, eliminating Tipp and Waterford in the process.

But where this round-robin series is concerned, it rarely goes in that straightforward direction.

For Waterford’s part, they’ll continue fighting until they’ve nothing to fight for.

“In fairness to these fellas, they've proven before that they don't give in, so these fellas aren't going to give in before this championship is over,” said Peter Queally on Saturday.

“They want to hurl for the summer, that's their purpose, that's what they want to do. If we've an opportunity to still hurl by winning next Sunday, we'll be going for it.”

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