John Gibbons: 2024 promises to be another year of living dangerously

It is likely that global temperatures this year will — for the first time in millennia — rise by 1.5C over the pre-industrial average

An elephant lies dead in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe due to drought. Wildlife authorities and conservation groups say this is the impact of climate change and the El Niño weather phenomenon. Picture: Privilege Musvanhiri/IFAW

They say that every disaster movie begins with a scientist being ignored. While it was supposed to be virtually impossible, there is now a better than evens chance that global temperatures this year will — for the first time in millennia — rise by 1.5C over the pre-industrial average.

What makes this number so significant is that it’s the point at which scientists warn that critical climate tipping points begin to be breached, with the direst of consequences for humanity and the natural world.