Steady figures

THIS week, an Irish Times political poll recorded a five-point increase in support for the main Government party, Fine Gael, suggesting the economic recovery is beginning to bear fruit — that theory is being translated into spending power.

However, as we learnt in the hardest way, an economy is a fickle and uncertain thing that sometimes seems as if it has a mind of its own. Yesterday’s figures from the Central Statistics Office that showed retail sales fell by 0.2% last month are hardly unnerving but the figures underline how very delicate a flower the recovery remains.

Like all statistics these figures, when viewed isolation, tell only part of the story. If the motor sector is excluded there was a monthly increase of 0.4% in the value of retail sales and an annual increase of 0.7%. These figures hardly presage a return to the heady excesses of a decade ago but they do seem to have and authenticity about them, a steady-as-we-go robustness. They should not however be used as an argument for pay rises for anyone except the low-paid. It is still too early in the cycle to start loosening purse strings.

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