Shona Murray: Andy Burnham must show EU he can lead on treacherous path to Brexit referendum
British prime minister Andy Burnham: 'I think where we are isn't good enough.' Photo: Stefan Rousseau/PA
Andy Burnham has said it is "possible" a future Labour election manifesto could promise a new in-out referendum on the European Union.
Asked to clarify whether including an in-out referendum in a future Labour manifesto was even under consideration Burnham said: "Yes, things are possible. I think where we are isn't good enough." It’s a start.
While Burnham hasn’t announced anything close to a negotiation with Brussels over rejoining the EU’s single market or becoming a fully-fledged member of the EU again, he knows he must tread incredibly carefully. He simply must be further along in his thinking than he’s admitting.
The anticipated EU-UK summit due last July but cancelled because of Burnham’s putsch against Britain's former prime minister Keir Starmer, has been rescheduled to the end of November.
The original meeting was due to announce a vital but not groundbreaking agreement for the UK to rejoin the EU’s regulatory system on agricultural products. It means British farmers and fishermen could export their products to the EU without reams of red tape and form-filling required to prove the stock adheres to heath standards.
Read More
Under Brexit, for example, the fishing industry was severely hamstrung. Ironic, as those who pushed for Brexit — Farage et al — promised this industry above all would flourish once they were released from the shackles of their nearest, and most lucrative market.
Only out of absolute necessity would any British prime minister attempt to touch the hornets' nest of Brexit given it was the most polarizing movement in modern times. Its legacy is still one of bitterness and deep division.
But Burnham knows that continuing the path of pretence — that a government can ‘make Brexit work’ is a fool's errand.
Indeed, one can see the domestic forces hampering any government’s best efforts — Labour’s Red Wall voters, or the rise of REFORM in places like Burnham’s Brexit-voting constituency in Makerfield. Indeed, he’ll also have his work cut out for him responding to reports and accusations from some of the Brexit-fanatic press.
Starmer was far too timid in moving inch by inch towards the EU, but none of it was satisfactory or enough to tackle the reduction of around 6% to 8% of GDP as a consequence of the Brexit deal the country's former prime minister Boris Johnson concluded with Brussels. The barest bones agreement possible.
Indeed, Burnham could decide to rejoin only the single market, and like Iceland and Norway, could stay outside the EU structure. This would resolve the trade concerns, but the UK would be a ‘rule-taker’ alone and would have a seat at the table or a vote on key decisions at such a critical moment for the continent.
The UK — like any member state has the ability and was often successful in influencing EU rules — including in the creation of the single market itself. Single market access alone won’t be enough when the geopolitical challenges facing the UK are considered.
US president Trump has made no secret of his now-prolonged anger with the UK over the war in Iran.
He’s repeatedly stated his ‘disappointment’ with London over former prime minister Starmer’s initial refusal to allow the US to use UK bases for military purposes when it started the war in Iran jointly with Israel. Starmer relented within days, but it hasn’t changed the dial with Trump.
Since then, leaks from the US State Department reported Washington was reassessing its recognition of British sovereignty over the Falklands. And in September refused to commit to helping the UK in a potential Falkland Islands conflict — saying it was "not there to help me" in the Iran war.
Undoubtedly, his emphatic support of a United Ireland while in Dublin and Doonbeg a few weeks ago was somewhat an attempt to stoke up tensions within the UK.
So, Britain needs its friends and allies while facing such uncharted waters.
During the week, the US threatened Europe with an embargo of diesel exports unless it draws down its own stocks, in theory to ease prices.
The cost of diesel has surged 80% since the war in Iran and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The EU’s energy task force — led by the European Commission in Brussels — met on Friday to discuss.
Ireland, as holder of presidency of the European Council, stated that member states were co-ordinating among themselves to “take stock” of the situation, and “examine appropriate measures” to ease the increasingly tight market supplies across the continent.
The decision to draw down stocks is a sovereign matter mainly for France and Germany which hold around 35% of the continent’s emergency diesel supplies and are working with the International Energy Agency (IEA) on how to respond to the demand.
The UK, like many other countries, has low reserves of diesel and relies on the US for about 30% of its diesel, with most coming from mainland Europe. It has a reserve supply for 42 days approximately.
As the EU prioritises internal EU states' fortunes, it's times like this when London could do with being a leading member with leverage at such a consequential moment. Being a bystander is not ideal.
CONNECT WITH US TODAY
Be the first to know the latest news and updates
