'Irish emissions goals unattainable on our current trajectory' 

This summer's heatwave has caused havoc across large swathes of Portugal, Spain, France, and Greece. Picture: Valery Hache/AFP/Getty 

Ireland’s greenhouse gas emission targets are “unattainable” on its current trajectory, potentially landing the State with billions of euro in fines.

The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) provisional greenhouse gas emissions figures for last year have been published as wildfires rip across southern France, devastating communities and terrifying tourists.

Hundreds of firefighters have been tackling blazes that have burned through almost 20,000 hectares of Portugal, Spain, France, and Greece.

Europe is warming faster than any other continent, and unprecedented early summer heatwaves have been linked to hundreds of deaths occurring already this year.

However, Ireland still remains far below its carbon reduction targets.

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Ireland’s national target is to have cut greenhouse gas emissions by 51% in 2030, compared to 2018 levels. However, as of 2025, they had fallen by just 14.5%.

Under EU legislation, Ireland must reduce greenhouse gas emissions in key sectors — such as agriculture, transport, and buildings — by 42% in 2030, compared to 2005 levels.

As of 2025, a reduction of 12% had been reached.

The EPA’s figures do show a modest reduction of 2.2% compared to 2024, with emission reductions across all the main sectors.

However, greenhouse gas emissions now need to decrease by more than 10% each year until 2030 for Ireland to meet its national climate target of a 51% reduction on 2018 levels.

Four sectors met emission targets  

According to the EPA’s provisional figures published yesterday, four major sectors have stayed within their set emission ceilings.

These are residential buildings, commercial and public buildings, agriculture, and ‘other’.

However, the other three sectors that have exceeded their sectoral emission ceilings are electricity, transport, and industry.

Transport exceeded the sector’s emissions ceiling by 8.1%.

Industry broke its ceiling by 9.1%. The EPA report said: 

The national climate objective of a 51% reduction by 2030 will be unattainable unless every sector meets its indicative percentage reduction target.

Commenting on the report, EPA director general Eimear Cotter said: “This is the fourth year in a row that Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions have reduced, which is welcome in the context of a growing economy and population.

“However, with just four years to 2030, Ireland needs to accelerate delivery and achieve much deeper annual reductions to meet our climate targets.

“The evidence shows that clear prioritisation and sustained investment can deliver emissions reductions.

“Since 2005, emissions covered by the emissions trading system, including large point sources such as power generation, have fallen by over 52%.”

In contrast, greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, transport, and buildings have collectively fallen by only 12%. Ms Cotter said: 

This highlights the key challenge for Ireland to reduce emissions from dispersed emission sources.

“The priority now is to accelerate delivery in these sectors by removing barriers and making low-carbon choices practical, affordable, and attractive.”

In terms of EU targets, the EPA assessment shows that Ireland has not met its EU Effort Sharing Regulation commitments in 2025, even with the use of flexibilities.

Last year’s greenhouse gas emissions were 12% below 2005 levels, well short of Ireland’s EU effort sharing reduction commitment of 42% by 2030. 

Summary of trends from key sectors

 • Energy Industries: Emissions from energy industries decreased for the fourth consecutive year by 7.1% in 2025, to an all-time low of 6.6 Mt CO2eq. 

This was due to the large share of energy generation coming from renewables (40.6%) in combination with an increase in the share of imported electricity (16.4% of electricity supply in 2025 compared to 14.1% in 2024).

• Transport: Emissions from transport decreased for the second year in a row by 1.5% or 0.17 Mt CO2eq following a 1.2% decrease in 2024. 

A 14.9% increase in the use of biofuels along with a 35.4% increase in electricity consumption for road transport contributed to reduced emissions in 2025.

•  Agriculture: Agriculture emissions decreased slightly by 0.2% or 0.04 Mt CO2eq in 2025. 

This was primarily due to a 3.3% reduction in cattle numbers offset by a 12.7% increase in nitrogen fertiliser use and a 4.8% increase in milk production.

•  Buildings (Residential, Commercial and Public): Emissions from buildings decreased by 4.7% due to a warmer winter and decreased use of fossil fuels. 

Emissions within the Residential sector have fallen to their lowest level in over three decades. Currently standing at 2.7 t CO2eq per household, this figure represents a substantial decline from the 1990 baseline of 7.5 t CO2eq.

•  Industry: Manufacturing combustion and industrial processes emissions decreased by 3.3% to 6.0 Mt CO2eq in 2025 due to marked reductions in coal (down 25.5%), oil (down 6.2%) and gas (down 2.7%) usage. 

Total emissions from the cement sector decreased by 3.6% or 0.1 Mt CO2eq in line with a reduction in clinker production.

The Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory 1990 to 2025 is available on the EPA website.