Ireland to fall well short of 2030 emissions reduction targets

EPA projections show Ireland made slight headway in raising its achievable reductions over the past 12 months, with projected reductions rising from 23% to 25%. But it will not be enough to make significant inroads on the country’s mandated climate change targets. Picture: iStock 

Ireland is certain to miss its European and domestic emissions reduction targets for 2030 by a distance, with just half of the State’s 51% goal projected to be achieved.

The latest emissions projections from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) show Ireland made slight headway in raising its achievable reductions over the past 12 months, with projected reductions rising from 23% to 25%.

The overall result will not, however, be enough to make significant inroads on the country’s mandated climate change targets. 

As western Europe experiences record high temperatures for May, the EPA said that, should all policies and plans in place at present be carried out as projected, a 25% reduction could be achieved. 

It called for “renewed focus” on delivering the highest reduction possible given the “short timeframe” remaining.

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The agency also said that Ireland’s targets under the EU’s effort sharing regulation will not be met, with at best a 23% reduction — versus the bloc’s 2030 threshold of 42%.

The EPA would not be drawn on the possible penalties for Ireland for missing those targets, citing the “uncertainty” surrounding what the fallout from the deadline passing will look like.

Experts have previously suggested a cost to the exchequer of up to €26bn.

It said that, given only four years remain before that deadline passes, Ireland must have “a strong focus on implementation of policies and measures to meet climate targets”.

The various projections detailed are dependent upon input from various Government bodies and agencies, the EPA said, with some sectors performing significantly better than others in terms of reductions.

Transport, industry, and building construction are the fields set to be furthest from their 2030 goals.

The land use sector — dealing primarily with fluctuations in emissions based on how land and forestry are utilised — will see its projected emissions increase by 72% by 2030, primarily driven by expected forest-harvesting.

In transport, Ireland will see at best a 28% reduction by 2030 versus the sector’s 50% target, with the projected result under existing measures standing at 16%.

The EPA said those figures correspond to 675,000 electric vehicles (EVs) being on the road here by 2030 under existing measures, together with an increased use of biofuels among the population, and 751,000 EVs under the ‘with additional measures’ best-case scenario.

The same projections in last year’s emissions report were 564,000 and 641,000 respectively. As of last October, there were 166,000 EVs on Irish roads.

Asked if the numbers expressed this year are realistic, Tomás Murray — the EPA’s senior manager for emissions statistics — said “they are not targets, they are based on the data we have been provided with” by Zero Emissions Vehicles Ireland in the Department of Transport.

“They’re realistic trajectories based on the current levels of implementation and rollout.”

Other sectors faring better, if not in line with targets, include electricity and agriculture, the EPA said.

Europe blasted by 'heat dome'

Meanwhile, climate experts said the sweltering “heat dome” currently enveloping Europe has resulted “beyond a shadow of a doubt” from climate change.

Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units research centre at Maynooth University, said the UK breaking its own May temperature records by a full 2C is “mind-bogglingly crazy”.

“Rather than jauntily putting a picture of an ice cream cone, a barbecue or a beach, the media may wish to consider the real impacts upon the most vulnerable in society and recalibrate their framing accordingly,” he said.

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