Support for Fine Gael slumps while almost 31% undecided
The Irish Examiner/ICMSA survey found that, while Fine Gael would still have a commanding lead in an election, support has drained away from the party among the farming community over the past two years.
The study shows farmers are politically far more active than most sections of society, with just 8% declining to vote in the 2011 general election.
Of the eight farming regions surveyed, 37% said they would vote for Fine Gael if an election were held tomorrow — a substantial drop from the 63% of farmers who voted Fine Gael in the last election.
Fianna Fáil would receive 18%, slightly down from the 21% it received last time out in 2011.
Sinn Féin would receive 4%, up 2% from 2011, while Labour would see a drop in support from 3% to 2%. Independents/others would see a slight increase in their vote, from 3% to 4%.
However, all political parties are likely to take encouragement from the fact that 31% of farmers said they were undecided on how they would vote if an election were called tomorrow — indicating that large swathes of the rural vote are still up for grabs.
This large level of undecided voters is also likely to offer consolation to the traditional farmer party, Fine Gael.
The study shows that if undecided voters are excluded, Fine Gael’s support stands at 54% to Fianna Fáil’s 26%.
Support for Fine Gael is strongest among dairy farmers, 58% of whom said they would vote for Fine Gael if an election was held tomorrow. They were followed by tillage farmers and livestock/cattle farmers at 32%, and other farmers at 19%.
Fianna Fáil’s largest vote would come among livestock/cattle farmers, 22% of whom said they would vote for Micheál Martin’s party.
Undecided voters appear to hold the key to how farmers will vote next time with 51% of farmers outside of the tillage, dairy and livestock/cattle sectors saying they remain undecided.
What emerges from the study is the main large parties of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are either largely keeping their previous voters, or their previous supporters remain undecided.
For example, just 5% of those who voted for Fine Gael at the last general election said they will switch to Fianna Fáil, while 28% are undecided. As a result, Fine Gael remains more popular with farmers at 37% than with the rest of the population.
The latest Red C Poll carried out last month showed Fine Gael was still the most popular party in the country at 29% — up 1% since June. Fianna Fáil is at 22%, followed by Sinn Féin at 15%, Labour at 11%, and Independents/others at 23%.
