IRA decommissioning - IMC verdict central to next step

EVEN if the IRA to take the advice of Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny and announce a unilateral decommissioning of its arms, it is a moot point whether it would improve Sinn Féin’s currency with both governments and the other Northern Ireland parties.

In an RTÉ radio interview, he contended that such a move by the IRA would show both were serious about following the path of democratic politics and would be a gesture of credibility.

The problem is they already made such an announcement well before the Northern Bank episode. The question of decommissioning had been addressed until the intervention of Ian Paisley’s insistence on published photographic evidence.

At that stage it appeared that the process was about to take a giant leap of progress in normalising the North’s future. Unfortunately it landed on the syndrome of criminality and both governments now have to evaluate the IRA’s and Sinn Féin’s commitment to end all forms of paramilitary or criminal activity.

Despite denials from both organisations of involvement in the bank robbery, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and British Prime Minister Tony Blair have accepted the contrary to be true.

The political conundrum that situation poses is reflected in the fact for the very first time Garda Commissioner Noel Conroy will accompany the Taoiseach on a visit to Downing Street tomorrow, which will also be attended by Chief Constable Hugh Orde.

Given that the briefing by the two police chiefs will hardly eliminate the IRA and Sinn Féin from helping them with their enquiries, Mr Ahern and Mr Blair will have to seriously consider their options at a later private meeting.

There are not too many available to them, although the International Monitoring Commission (IMC) could prove to be a vehicle to provide an answer to this fractious problem. It can be taken almost for granted that the IMC will return a verdict of guilty on the IRA’s involvement with the bank robbery, with consequences for Sinn Féin.

It would be extraordinarily embarrassing for both governments and their police chiefs, were the IMC to disagree with their belief that the republicans were responsible.

Within its remit is the power to recommend the suspension of Sinn Féin for up to a year and obviously, its opinion will be shared with the Taoiseach, whom they meet today, to assess the implications of the raid.

The public perception by now is that they should proceed to find a solution to progress the peace process and Sinn Féin will have to commit to the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement, as they demand of other parties.