Time bought to build real lasting peace - Ceasefire agreed in Belarus

IT is far too early to celebrate the agreement aimed at ending the war in Ukraine reached after difficult talks in Belarus between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France.

It is not however too early to feel a deep sense of immediate relief and guarded optimism. A nasty regional conflict, one characterised by cruelty and dishonesty, was quickly sliding towards the point where it might run out of control and ensnare interests not already directly involved.

It would be peace-in-our-time foolishness to pretend that consequences of such an acceleration would be anything other than catastrophic.

The optimism provoked by the Belarus pact must be qualified as the deal is very similar to the ceasefire agreed last September but which unravelled very quickly and led to the deaths of thousands of people, the majority of whom were civilians caught up in the age old conflict between east and west. The indifference shown today by Russia to the terms of a similar deal agreed between that country and Georgia to resolve a very similar conflict in 2008 also colours perceptions.

There is too the unfortunate question of Russia’s integrity and ultimate objectives — and what it is prepared to do to achieve them. It is believed, and he has done little to dismiss the idea because it wins him tremendous support among resurgent Russian nationalists, that President Vladimir Putin regards it almost as his patriotic duty to ensure that Ukraine is once again made a Russian buffer state unable to exercise the freedoms we regard as everyday unless the Kremlin approves. This old fashioned imperialism — or subjugation if you prefer — is a real challenge to the EU when imposed on a suitor country on its borders.

Just as Russia would not tolerate the westernisation of Ukraine the EU and its allies cannot contemplate an iron curtain being again drawn between it and what it regards as a welcome neighbour happy to promote the EU’s values. That Greece, an EU member state rescued from a fate even worse than the terrible hardships it has endured in recent years by the EU, is openly courting Russian support in its struggle to overturn debt commitment seems a kind of betrayal even if it is empty, impotent grand standing. Leaders from another time, leaders whose patience had been exhausted by war, might have cut them adrift long ago and wished them the very best in their new relationships.

It is difficult to see how Russia might be able to help Greece as its imploding economy and the ever-tightening grip of sanctions have, we are assured, played a significant role in bringing Mr Putin to accept the Belarus terms. The suggestion that America might support Ukraine’s forces, even in a modest way, must have been influential too. For the moment all of that can wait as the agreement should bring an end to all of the fighting this weekend. The deal has bought time to allow a real and lasting — and fair — peace to be concluded. Let us hope the opportunity is grasped and that Russia and Mr Putin come to realise that they cannot again promote proxy wars on Europe’s borders.