Languishing third in the polls FF faces a bloodbath in June

Political Correspondent Paul O’Brien says the wheels have come fully off Cowen & Co’s wagon.

IF there was one consolation Fianna Fáil took from the disastrous local and European elections of 2004, it was that things couldn’t possibly get as bad again.

The lead-up to those elections had been dominated by a swell of bad feeling towards the Government. It manifested itself on election day, with Fianna Fáil losing 80 of its council seats. It was left with 302 councillors — enough to maintain its status as the largest party in the country in terms of council membership, but only just.

Fine Gael came roaring up behind, winning 16 seats to bring its total to 293.

The problems didn’t end there. Fianna Fáil lost its grip on the capital, taking just 12 seats on Dublin City Council and leaving Labour in control with 15.

Making matters worse, Fine Gael succeeded in winning more seats than Fianna Fáil in the European elections, taking five to the latter’s four.

All told, Fianna Fáil members told themselves it couldn’t possibly get any worse. Conventional wisdom agreed. Even this time last year, when the then taoiseach Bertie Ahern was ensnared in the Mahon Tribunal, Fianna Fáil was, all things considered, faring reasonably well in the polls at 34%. The party’s support positively soared when Mr Ahern was replaced by Brian Cowen in May, rising to 42%. The world, according to Fianna Fáil, was a very sweet place indeed at that point.

But, of course, the wheels came off the wagon. The global banking crisis and the collapse of the domestic construction sector left the Government reeling. Its response was a hastily thrown-together budget in October that blew up in its face, with massive protests against health and education cutbacks that led to Fianna Fáil backbenchers losing their nerve and demanding Government U-turns. All told, it was a debacle, and the consequences were seen in a stunning TNS mrbi poll conducted for the Irish Times in November which showed Fine Gael ahead of Fianna Fáil for the first time.

Fine Gael had risen 11 points to 34%, while Fianna Fáil had fallen by a massive 15 points to 27%.

The latest poll in the series, published yesterday, was even more gob-smacking.

The intervening three months had seen tens of thousands of job losses, another €2bn of cutbacks, and a spate of damaging revelations about practices in the country’s banks. No Government party could have hoped to prosper in such circumstances, but Fianna Fáil certainly didn’t expect to fall to third place in the polls.

But that is exactly what happened, with Labour outstripping it for the first time since polling began, surging by 10 points to 24%. Fianna Fáil, by contrast, dropped another five points to just 22%. Fine Gael dropped by two points, but comfortably maintained its position as the most popular party in the country on 32%.

Put simply, if those figures are maintained, Fianna Fáil is facing another bloodbath in June’s local elections. The scenario that they once believed an impossibility — that they could lose even more seats — has now become a probability.

They look set to go into those elections with the least popular leader in the country, Brian Cowen’s personal approval ratings having fallen to just 24%.

Fine Gael has a comfortable eight-point lead over the nearest party, but has dropped a couple of points since November and seen leader Enda Kenny’s personal ratings slip three points to 30%.

If the poll is accurate, it suggests they’ve hit a wall and are falling backwards. The failure to capitalise to a greater extent on Fianna Fáil’s woes will surely play on strategists’ minds.

Labour will be happy — albeit temporarily — and the poll is a massive vindication of Eamon Gilmore’s leadership to date, his approval ratings having soared by six points to 44%, making him the most popular leader in the country.

But the party won’t be taking anything for granted, having virtually flatlined at around 10% in the last three general elections — 2007, 2002 and 1997. This was despite more successful showings in polls taken at various stages between the three elections.

The Greens have stayed on 4% in the poll, with party leader John Gormley’s approval rating up one point to 29%. But that is not much of a consolation when detailed analysis of the poll suggests the party’s performance in Dublin — in which it would need a strong showing — is average at best.

Sinn Féin are up one point to 9%, while party president Gerry Adams is down one point to 32%. Not much of a change, one might say, but Sinn Féin will surely be looking in envy at Labour’s surge and wondering what they could do to gain some extra ground.