Why Australia, not Brazil, may be Irish beef's biggest threat

In the longer term, it is probably Australian beef that will most threaten Ireland’s dominant share of beef imported into the UK.

Brazil is the bogey-man for Irish cattle farmers, but it may be the world’s other top beef exporter, Australia, that hurts them hardest.

When Irish beef exports to the UK fell from 51,000t to 44,000t in the first quarter of 2026, imports increased from Australia, New Zealand, and Brazil to fill the gap.

In the longer term, it is probably Australian beef that will most threaten Ireland’s dominant share of beef imported into the UK.

Historically, Ireland supplied nearly 80% of UK beef imports. But after the UK-Australia and UK-New Zealand free trade agreements, and growth in Brazilian imports, Ireland’s market share fell to 67% in 2025.

Australian beef imports offer a significantly lower-cost alternative to Irish grass-fed beef. Known for its grain-fed and disease-free reputation, the Australian product is a better fit for a premium market like the UK. And Australia exports nearly three and a half times more beef than New Zealand.

In pounds sterling, current deadweight global beef prices are about £3.50 per kilo from Brazil, the cheapest, and £5 from Australia, according to the UK’s Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.

The price of Irish beef is about £5.50, UK beef is at nearly £6. Only USA beef is more expensive, at about £6.75.

Australian beef prices remain at record highs, driven by a strong export trade. That’s great news for Australian farmers and exporters, because their production level is also at its highest ever level, thanks to two years of good weather for pastures.

But beef prices are as unpredictable in Australia as elsewhere. Farmers down under have their fingers crossed now, in case the developing El Niño weather patterns cause prolonged dry conditions, leading to a flood of cattle coming to market, and the price falling.

That could increase their shipments to the UK, even though it is a relatively small market for Australian beef, taking only 1% of their exports.

Australian beef exports have increased to the US, China and South Korea.

But Australia had used 90% of its 205,000-tonne export quota to China by June 1 — a 55% tariff applies to beef over the quota. Australia is also expected to hit its South Korea quota limit earlier than previous years, after which a 24% tariff applies.

The USA is now becoming Australia’s biggest beef customer, taking about 110,000 tonnes in the first quarter of this year.

Only 4,500 thousand tonnes went to the UK in the same period.

That compares with 44,000 tonnes from Ireland, and about 8.000t each from Brazil and New Zealand.

Poland was another big supplier, at 5,000t, with smaller amounts coming from the Netherlands, Germany, and others.

But Australia has suddenly become the fifth largest supplier of beef (including offal) to the UK, and the third largest for just fresh and frozen beef, thanks to a 153% year-on-year rise in shipments.

It looks like Australia is getting interested in sending more beef to the UK. By March 2026, it had filled 17% of its free trade agreement UK export quota.

It is quite likely Australia will continue to compete for an increasing market share in the UK.

This year, its annual free trade agreement UK export quota is 60,000 tonnes. But that increases step by step up to nearly 110,000t in 2032.

Irish farmers can only hope enough demand comes from the USA or Asia to divert Australian beef from the UK.