Battleground states: Where the World Cup final will be won and lost
Argentina's Enzo Fernandez celebrates scoring their side's first goal of the game during the FIFA World Cup 2026 semi-final. Pic: Nick Potts/PA Wire.
It’s been a big 48 hours for babies and bathwater. That photo has been thrown out early and often since Argentina booked the second spot in Sunday’s World Cup Final.
It is a genuinely remarkable intertwining of the fates that Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal should go from their photoshoot to football’s biggest game 19 years later.
But a second photo shows another serendipitous side to this rare meeting of two of the international game’s finest.
Nine years ago at the Spanish FA headquarters near Madrid, Lionel Scaloni was among a cohort of a couple of dozen graduates from a UEFA Pro Licence course. To his left was his favourite teacher, Luis de la Fuente.
“He was my mentor and he taught me everything I know,” Scaloni recalled after victory over England in Atlanta on Wednesday. The professor’s take? “Lionel was a very diligent student with a great attitude.”
Over the past five weeks, both master and apprentice have struck a significant blow for the less-heralded students of the game.
While Thomas Tuchel, Carlo Ancelotti and Mauricio Pochettino have all failed mightily to justify their super-coach reputations and salaries, Scaloni and De la Fuente have led the tournament’s two best teams to this decisive moment.
In their own ways, the embody the distinct qualities and approaches of their teams.
De la Fuente is a portrait of patience and calm on the sidelines, trusting his process as La Roja work through their collective patterns and subtly raise the pressure. Some of Yamal’s brilliance has been left under-used because the system is what matters most, not the mechanical pieces.
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Scaloni has often been the beating heart on the sidelines, emotion sometimes literally pouring out of him.
He couldn’t speak after the Egypt epic. Similar to his leadership in Qatar, he tries to follows his mentor’s lead with poise but the bedlam that his players seem pre-disposed towards drags him with them.
Now apprentice and master face off for everything. A collective against a team built to serve a unique individual.
In their preparation, messaging and pro-activity on the day, the De la Fuente vs. Scaloni chess match will be more than photo-worthy too.
New Jersey Stadium has come in for criticism during the tournament for the quality of its surface. It hosts the last teams standing after a two-week break and the hope is the grass has improved.
Whatever its quality, controlling the lion’s share of Sunday’s space shapes to be massive.
Both finalists have dominated possession in all eight of their knockout matches to date: Argentina (64% possesion vs Cape Verde; 64% vs Egypt; 59% vs Switzerland 64% vs England) Spain (64% vs Austria; 55% vs Portugal; 68% vs Belgium; 51% vs France).
Pointing to midfield as a battleground isn’t revelatory but given the devastating display put in by Rodri, Fabian Ruiz and Dani Olmo against France, it’s clear this is where Spain can win it.
Their pressure is as key as possession. Spain’s defensive brilliance is built on denying any good looks at Unai Simon’s goal. Rodri is key here. Suffocating the spaces which England ceded to Messi will be a priority.
Width and speed hurt Argentina so Yamal finding his signature game on final day feels possible but Pedro Porro and Marc Cucarella loom large too. Service to all comes from the brilliant midfield trio.
Leandro Paredes and Alexis Mac Allister have got through incredible work on the journey here, Enzo Fernandez too. All will have to rise again to keep the middle competitive enough for Messi’s influence to be felt again.
Sunday is a venture into uncharted territory. No, not the depressing concrete nothingness of New Jersey but an eighth World Cup game.
Between them, Spain and Argentina have accounted for two of the last four editions of this tournament.
In both of those and indeed every one since 1998, being the last team standing after playing seven matches was enough.
But Gianni Infantino’s capitalist expansion of means the finalists now have to go to the well once more.
Even allowing for Thomas Tuchel’s tactical self-immolation, exhaustion undoubtedly played a part in England’s catastrophic collapse in Atlanta. Fatigue is sure to be a factor in the decider too.
That’s where the benches come into things. Both Scaloni and De la Fuente have an enviable level of depth at their disposal and both have found match winners among their substitutes at key moments, both here and in other recent glories.
If FIFA were to create an award akin to the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year, for the tournament’s best bench contributor, Sunday would be a straight shootout.
Between them Mikel Merino and Lautaro Martinez have scored five goals at this World Cup, four coming off the bench and three deciding knockout matches.
Merino did similar at Euro 2024 while Martinez rose from the bench to decide the last major international final on US soil, the 2024 Copa America decider. They’re probably the two best super-subs in the game.
There will be other bench factors too. Nico Williams is clearly not close to full fitness but should the game be in the balance with 20 to go offers both of those key threats Argentina fear — width and speed. Assuming he sticks with his winning XI, De la Fuente would also have Pedri to introduce.
By circumstance as much as choice, in epic and/or extra-time victories over Cape Verde, Egypt, Switzerland and England, Scaloni has used 21 subs in four games.
Shrewd timing and personnel choices off the bench could well swing it all.
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