Ruby Walsh: Galway feature is a fiendishly difficult race to figure out
TOUGH TO CALL: Murcia and Brian Hayes jump the last to win The Anglo Printers Remembering John H. Kierans Mares Hurdle for trainer Willie Mullins. Pic: Healy Racing Photo.
On Wednesday afternoon in Ballybrit, you could feel the overflow from Mayo’s party beginning to find its way south to the edges of Galway city. Because I can’t type fast enough to make the print cut-off time, I can’t report on how many actually turned up and what atmosphere they brought with them. Still, there is little doubt they will have added to the evening, and I am sure we will have had a thrilling Galway Plate.
Thursday, however, is the early day for Galway racegoers as the racing reverts to the afternoon with a 2.10pm kick-off for the Guinness Irish EBF Nursery Handicap.
I find it hard enough to decipher handicap form at the best of times, let alone when very few of them have even run in handicaps, so I will be taking a pass on the opener with a token mention for Seven Nation Army for those of you looking for a choice in the first to get your day rolling.
The second is the Listed fillies’ contest over seven furlongs, where 10 line up, but three of them can only hope to steal a third-place finish if they get lucky, which will earn them black type for the pedigree page to enhance their value and whatever they might breed.
Of the other seven, Meriden has been the revelation of the Flat season, but connections will be hoping for a return of the summer sun to enhance her chances. Pivotal Attack has the course form, but the stable form is questionable, and Nancy J was possibly well placed to finish third in a similar contest at Leopardstown but might struggle here.
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Celestial Orbit has to regain her mojo to land a blow, and the drop in class might help, but rider bookings suggest Celtic Motif is the chosen one for Joseph O’Brien and is probably the answer to the puzzle.
La Brodeuse is one of two English challengers and can’t be discounted, and neither should Black Caviar Gold. However, both of her wins have come on soft ground, so Celtic Motif gets the nod to follow up her Killarney success.
The Grade Three novice chase at 3.20pm doesn't look like an outstanding renewal on paper, and Le Cog Hardi holds the strongest piece of form, with his fourth in last year's Kerry National, which would be good enough to collect here if he can run to that level.
Henry de Bromhead will be hoping he will be the first leg of a double that Midnight Jet can bring up in the next, but Willie Mullins will be hoping his Roc Dino finally delivers on the promise he arrived from France with.
The hope in Closutton was that he could potentially have been a leading novice hurdler last season, but that didn’t materialise, and he has found himself as part of the summer team looking to earn his spot back on the winter squad. The undulations of Downpatrick suited him, so hopefully Galway will too.
Today's feature is up next: The Guinness Galway Hurdle, and it just about has a full field of 20. It shocked some that this contest attracted a below-average entry size, but the red lights have been flashing for some while with hurdlers in both Ireland and the UK.
Everyone has their own theory on why, but the equivalent races at Cheltenham last November, Ascot last December, at the last Dublin Racing Festival, and Newbury last February had 18, 13, 19, and 15 runners.
What has changed in 25 years or maybe less is that in 2001, when 20 runners lined up in the Galway Hurdle, 17 of the 20 had started their careers on the Flat as two- or three-year-olds in Ireland or Great Britain.
Four of the 19 at the DRF had, one out of 13 at Ascot had, one out of 15 at Newbury had, and four out of 18 at Cheltenham had. Today, seven of the 20, started their careers of the Flat whereas 17 did 25 years ago, and the knock-on effects of commercial flat breeding for speed in two-year-olds are not only affecting the middle-distance flat programme but are being felt in the hurdling division too.
Perhaps the need for breeders' bonuses for middle-distance Flat horses has arrived and might be a better spend for the sport in the long term than some of the incentives we see at the minute.
But none of that will find the winner of today's Galway Hurdle, so from the top, Solness is 14lbs lower over hurdles than fences and has to be respected off top weight, but Casheldale Lad is 14lbs higher than when he couldn’t win last, so why will he this time?
Ndaawi deserved to get the race in the stewards' room last year, and with James Smith’s claim, could go back-to-back, but the jury remains out on El Cairos for me. He looks to have the engine to be a star but faltered last season when upped in class, and sometimes you have to see to believe.
Laafi is on an upward curve and can't be counted out, and neither can the five-year-old Puturhandstogether, who is nicely weighted if he is having a going day. Tounsivator ran well enough on Monday to suggest he could be placed again this year, but I can see why Paul Townend has chosen Murcia over him, as she has always promised to deliver a pot like this and today could be her day.
Too Bossy For Us shouldn’t be too far behind El Cairos, but I can’t see why he would finish in front of him and last year's first past the post Helvic Dream might find it harder this time up in the weights.
Starting Fifteen is unexposed but unproven on summer ground, and Gameball has failed to build on his early promise last autumn, though he does have age on his side. Ragman’s Corner ran two cracking races here last year, showing his liking for the track, and Putapoundinthejar hails from Tony Martin's yard, whose horses can often find an extra leg at this meeting.
Beauvallon needs to leave his Bellewstown flop behind him, which he could before we get to Sageborough, who actually has a better chance than his price suggests. He could well have finished closer to Too Bossy For Us and El Cairos in the Supreme but for falling two out and sneaks in here off 10st 1lb.
Royal Hollow is honest and tough but looks exposed, Barbizon seems to be out of form, Kai Lung looks a doubtful stayer, and Thisistheway has only won on flat tracks. Therefore, I have ruled more in than out in what looks like a fiendishly difficult race to figure out, but for small stakes I am siding with Murcia, Ragman’s Corner and Sageborough.
