Ruby Walsh: James J Braddock the biggest threat to Benvenuto Cellini in Derby

Benvenuto Cellini and Ryan Moore win for trainer Aidan O'Brien. Pic: Healy Racing

IT’S 31 years since the Derby, not the Epsom Derby or English Derby, which, like the Grand National, doesn’t need another word or letter to distinguish itself because they are the original versions, was moved from the first Wednesday in June to the first Saturday.

The powers that be on the Downs south of London and the Jockey Club, who own the racecourse, made the move to increase attendances and television audiences. 

I guess in 1995, no one could have foreseen the internet or realised just how much the world would change and how the habits of a population would shift, but going to a Saturday only worked for six years before a decline set in, and competition for attendees and eyeballs became a reality.

Lambourn strode to victory last year under Wayne Lorden in front of a record low attendance, outside of the covid years obviously, but 22,500 spectators was some 30,000 fewer than what watched Galileo in 2001.

The decline has been progressive, dropping by 5,000 by 2005 and another 12,000 by 2010, but a spike in 2022, after the pandemic, to 37,000 looked like a false dawn by this day last year. 

Things needed to change, and Epsom has thrown a shed load of cash at marketing this year’s Derby and another lorry load at prize money and infrastructure.

I guess the hope is that if you build it, they will come, but no one can doubt the ambition to make Derby day great again.

Not everyone will like the approach they have taken, but race days are long, with minimal action, so the day has to be an event, and that is the basket Epsom has put all its eggs in.

Time will tell if it works, but it will also tell us who has won the Derby, and that is most likely to be Aidan O’Brien. 

Many will feel he sent his best three-year-old colt to Chantilly last Sunday for the French Derby, and to be fair, if he did, he got it spot-on with Constitution River beating his two stable companions, Hawk Mountain and Montreal, to give him a 1-2-3.

I doubt he will repeat that feat today, but in Benvenuto Cellini, Pierre Bonnard, Action, and Christmas Day, he possesses a formidable team all the same. 

Last Sunday, the Ballydoyle horses dominated the race from the off, and at 4pm this afternoon, they will be hoping for a similar scenario.

Action will break from stall 11 under Wayne Lordan and just like he did in the Dante, I expect him to power forward but go a bit faster than he did at York.

From the other side of the track, Ronan Whelan will come from the same stall as Camelot did, five, when he won the Derby, on Christmas Day and move forward to join Wayne as the runners drift right before peeling off to the left as they climb the hill.

Ballydoyle will be first and second at this point, but Ryan Moore will come from Desert Crown’s stall 12, on Benvenuto Cellini right next to Wayne Lordan, and will be hoping to land on the tails of his stable companions.

His only issue will be who has ridden forward from the stalls inside him and how deep he ends up on the track. 

Three wide is doable; Galileo did that for most of the way, but four deep is a no-go, so Ryan will be angling left to put pressure on those inside to go back, or, if he is slightly slow away, he will have to take his medicine and end up halfway back.

David Egan from the lucky stall 10, 12 winners have claimed Derby glory from there, will be booting forward on Wayne’s tail to hold Ryan out, and Rowan Scott on Poker from stall four will be doing his best to grab the box seat on the leader’s tail.

Christophe Soumillon will have horses pushing him left and right on Pierre Bonnard, and even if he can break sharp from stall eight, heading A Taste Of Glory from stall seven will be a task and with Tom Marquand on Maltese Cross and Colin Keane on Item, who will come from stalls one and three, hot on Poker’s coattails to land themselves a good position, the first three furlongs of this Derby will be frantic.

It will be where it’s won and lost. Anyone inside stall eight who is slow to get into stride will end up last and on the rail, needing a miracle. 

Those in the outside stalls who are willing to roll the dice could get an easy free passage through a race that is likely to be run at a strong pace.

Step forward, James J Braddock. A Saturday Derby winner has never come from stall 13, but Kahyasi did on a Wednesday in 1988 under Ray Cochrane, and Dylan Browne McMonagle could find himself in the perfect position on Joseph O’Brien’s charge in the slipstream of Ryan Moore on Benvenuto Cellini.

Ryan will get to three off the rail, be that in the second or third row, but essentially, Dylan only has to ride the race Ryan rides from one length further back. Ryan will get himself into an attacking position off Tattenham Corner and will wait for someone to commit first before he chases them down.

In all likelihood, he will time his effort perfectly and land himself a fifth Derby, but if someone is to land a surprise, then the one who follows him and tries to burgle him late will be the one to do it, and that one could be James J Braddock.

He nabbed Pierre Bonnard on the line at Leopardstown and looked like he would relish an extra couple of furlongs, and while I think Benvenuto Cellini will win, I also think this lad is his biggest danger.