With up to nine TDs already signalling they may not contest the next election, Varadkar should be worried
With polls predicting a Sinn Féin surge, the high number of potential departures should be a worry for Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar. Picture: Leon Farrell/RollingNews.ie
Ahead of any general election, there is always a certain level of natural attrition.
However, with up to nine TDs signalling, this far out from an election, that they may not run, Leo Varadkar should be worried.
Most concerning is the fact that many of those on the exit list are politicians who would be seen as having much more to give, both to the party and politics.
These are in addition to the likes of Bernard Durkan, Michael Creed, Fergus O'Dowd, David Stanton, and Charlie Flanagan, who are viewed as having served a full career in politics.
Members of Fine Gael are already signalling alarm that those in the "middle generation" are thinking seriously about whether they should stand in the next election.
These include John Paul Phelan and Paul Kehoe, both of whom have previously served as junior ministers, and who would have been previously considered loyal supporters of Mr Varadkar and key figures in his leadership election.
"The departure of that middle generation would not be ideal, they would be the group who would provide continuity after the next generation," said one TD.
Politicians who already have a Dáil term or two behind them are invaluable to every party, not just Fine Gael. They act as mentors to newly-elected TDs and senators, are known to the general public, and if in Government, also have the experience to be considered for a senior cabinet role.
The departure of the likes of Donegal's Joe McHugh, who last year announced he would not be running, and Kerry's Brendan Griffin, who is expected to make a formal announcement soon, hollows out Fine Gael at its middle-management level.
The stepping-aside of both of these men, in particular, also creates a numbers problem for the party.
Mr McHugh topped the poll in Donegal North-East at the 2007 general election with 22.6% of the first-preference vote.
In 2011, Mr Griffin was selected on the Fine Gael ticket in Kerry South as a running partner for sitting TD Tom Sheahan. Mr Griffin topped the poll with 8,808 first-preferences votes, which was over 3,000 more than his party colleague had secured.
While their votes may have fluctuated over the intervening elections, it is clear that both men have a large personal support base and are not solely reliant on the party vote.
With the polls predicting a Sinn Féin surge, these departures would leave Fine Gael vulnerable to losing representation in both Donegal and Kerry.
One senator warned that while Fine Gael are hoping to pick up seats in some constituencies including Tipperary, Waterford, and Cork South West, these gains could be cancelled out by the level of pre-election attrition.
"If we do that, we aren't really making gains, we are really just standing still," said one senator.
While some of the names swirling around Leinster House are currently on what one TD described as the "amber list" and not quite yet on the "red list", the redraw of constituencies, due to be published before the summer, will undoubtedly dictate whether some stand down or not.
"Many will be waiting until July; the likes of Paul Kehoe will be looking at what happens in Wexford; Michael Creed is another man who would be waiting. There are all those dynamics at play," said one senior Fine Gael source.
