Putin will begin to carpet-bomb Ukraine unless the West acts

Zelenskyy is winning the land war, but Putin has the advantage in the air war, writes James Stavridis

A woman walks past debris of the destroyed house after recent Russian air strike in Chasiv Yar, Ukraine. With a land war favouring Ukraine and a brutal air war favouring Russia, the West’s best option will be to significantly increase its assistance to Ukraine on the air war side of the conflict.

The strategically vital city of Kherson is back in the hands of Ukrainians, albeit under threat of Russian shelling and attacks on its electricity supply. But as combatants on both sides of an increasingly static firing line prepare for winter war, there are effectively two separate conflicts emerging: one on the land, the other in the air. What can the West do to help Ukraine meet the immediate tactical challenges, and ultimately seize the longer-term advantage?

On land, the arrival of a wet, rainy winter will lead to a decrease in operations. Both Russia and Ukraine need to rest and reinforce their troops, as well as repair equipment. A return to full-blown combat operations isn’t likely until late winter when the ground freezes, presenting a better opportunity for the heaviest equipment.