Russia may already know its likely invasion route into Ukraine

Already, Vladimir Putin must be aware that to launch even a limited Ukraine incursion is to enter unknown political territory where the risks are in fact considerable.

In western Ukraine, if Russian forces dared to cross the Dnieper, the resistance would be fierce. Photo: Alexei Ivanov/Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP

“Everyone goes to Valuyki.” That phrase, captured on social media, may have provided the biggest clue about where Russia’s armed forces might strike Ukraine if Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashes the 130,000 troops he has massed along the border.

Draw a straight line from Valuyki, strategically located north of the Russian-backed breakaway Donbas region and east of Kharkiv, to the large city of Dnipro on the river Dnieper. It is approximately 300 kilometres, the shortest possible distance to the formidable natural defense that the river provides.