Constituency profile: Dublin Mid West

Number of seats: four. Electorate: 110,427
Constituency profile: Dublin Mid West

SITTINGS TDS: 

Joanna Tuffy (Lab)

Frances Fitzgerald (FG)

Robert Dowds (Lab)

Derek Keating (FG)

CANDIDATES

Frances Fitzgerald (FG)

Derek Keating (FG)

John Curran (FF)

Eoin Ó Broin (SF)

Joanna Tuffy (Lab)

Anne-Marie McNally (Soc Dems)

Gino Kenny (AAA/PBP)

Haroon Khan (Ind)

Lorraine Hennessy (Workers Party)

Paul Gogarty (Ind All)

Tom Kivlehan (Greens)

Francis Timmons (Ind)

Christopher Healy (DDI)

Patrick Akpoveta (Ind)

Clare Leonard (Ind)

PERCENTAGE OF VOTE SHARED IN IN 2011

Fine Gael 30.93

Lab 30.75

Fianna Fail 11.80

Sinn Fein 11.84

United Left Alliance 7.24

Greens 3.47

Others 3.96

PREDICTIONS

Frances Fitzgerald (FG), Eoin O’Broin (SF), John Curran (FF), Gino Kenny (AAA-PBP)

LIE OF THE LAND

Fine Gael and Labour each won seats here last time. They will likely lose two to three seats between them. Expect some breakthroughs here, mirroring the anti-water charge sentiment nationally.

LOCAL ISSUES

Water charges don’t go down well here. Housing, in particular the need for local authority homes, are among voter concerns as is the recent increase in crime.

PROFILE

While the coalition parties secured all the four seats last time (two each), their chances of success this time around are much more limited. Dublin Mid-West is a mix of working class and middle class areas. The anti-water charge sentiment is strong here and therefor likely to see parties of the left winning some the outgoing coalition’s seats. The high level of anger with Fine Gael and Labour also materialised during the local elections when Independents won some 60% of the vote.

Labour decided before the campaign started to only run one candidate, despite having two seats here, with a decision by TD Robert Dowds not to seek reelection. Joanna Tuffy will have a task trying to keep a party seat here, but transfers may be the key to help her across the line. The constituency is likely to see justice minister Frances Fitzgerald topping the poll, followed by Sinn Fein councillor Eoin O’Broin. The party won a quarter of all votes here in the local elections and will build on that.

After that, the last two seats are less predictable. Fianna Fail former minister John Curran will need to secure a high number of first preferences to get over the line. But he will face stiff competition from AAA Clondalkin councillor Gino Kenny, who could make a breakthrough, especially with the support he will get for his anti-water charge stance.

Another candidate to watch is former Greens minister Paul Gogarty, now running as an Independent with the Independent Alliance, who will do well on transfers. Fine Gael will struggle to get a second seat here and see outgoing TD Derek Keating returned. In a way, this may be a bellwether constituency and could demonstrate nationally any swing away from the government parties.

More in this section

Lunchtime
News Wrap

A lunchtime summary of content highlights on the Irish Examiner website. Delivered at 1pm each day.

Sign up
Revoiced
Newsletter

Our Covid-free newsletter brings together some of the best bits from irishexaminer.com, as chosen by our editor, direct to your inbox every Monday.

Sign up