Reform or decline are our options - Threats and lessons in 2016

Thirteen years ago, when he became leader of Fine Gael, Enda Kenny was derided as an inarticulate, rosy-cheeked culchie who would crumble under the pressure of political leadership.

Some opponents, as perceptive as the rest of us, suggested he would preside over his party’s obsequies, that he was more an in-house undertaker than the leader who would rejuvenate an unloved, marginalised party.

Today, he seems set to make history by being the first Fine Gael taoiseach to be re-elected — and even if he is not, his record shows he was grossly underrated. His record shows how foolish it is to dismiss possibilities because they do not chime with our world view, with our half-formed, wishful expectations. That is a lesson we should hold close as we edge towards 2016 because there will certainly be one occasion when our more or less European, centrist, liberal views will be deeply challenged. There may be two.

The first is the possibility that Donald Trump might actually be elected president of America. Mr Trump, less than a year before the US votes, stands at 39%, a considerable distance ahead of his nearest Republican rival, Ted Cruz, on 18%. It is not certain that the expected Democratic candidate — Hillary Clinton — would prevail in a down-and-dirty campaign against the shameless hate-monger. Mr Trump is a nasty, dishonest demagogue playing to the worst instincts and deepest fears of an America struggling with the new realities of a globalised world. His promise, if elected, to keep Muslims out of the US, should have ended his campaign but instead strengthened his position. A Trump presidency is a truly appalling prospect and a threat to world stability.

Like so many would-be leaders he uses the terrible plight of refugees to fan fears of the unknown. Mr Trump seems to have all of the vanity, ease with dishonesty, and boorishness that could make him America’s Putin. Just as Mr Kenny confounded his critics, Mr Trump may yet make Obama adviser David Axelrod regret his earlier, dismissive judgment: “In a parlance Trump would appreciate: We’re still in the swimsuit competition. It gets harder in the talent rounds.” We’re still waiting.

The second challenge to our comfortable place in the world may or may not come to pass next year, but the prospect of an October vote on Britain’s membership of the EU seems likely. Should Britain vote to quit the EU, it would have a far greater impact on our economy and society than any imaginable domestic policy.

Our capacity to influence these seismic possibilities is of no consequence but we can learn an invaluable lesson, one we must implement with courage and determination. The rise of Mr Trump and the prospect of our neighbours leaving the EU are real because traditional, established politics have failed on too many fronts. If Mr Kenny is re-elected he must implement the reform agenda — and much more — he trumpeted before he became taoiseach or else he will leave the country, and his successor, a legacy similar to the one he inherited in 2002 — one of underachievement, division, and dysfunction. We all, including Mr Kenny, deserve better than that.