More than a million Irish people set to contract swine flu in the autumn

MORE then a million Irish people can expect to get swine flu this autumn and up to 2,500 could die as a result, according to the latest report from the European Centre for Disease Control.

Ireland has one of the highest rates of infection per head of population in the EU at present with 164 confirmed cases. Britain has the most cases, with 7,400 of the 10,000 cases reported in Europe so far.

The European Centre (ECDC) says 30% of the population can expect to get the virus and one to two of every 1,000 people who contract it will die. This is higher than the Department of Health’s warning that 25% of the population could catch it.

It warns that all countries should prepare for a wave of the pandemic in the autumn after a relatively quiet summer, when they expect it may emerge in a more aggressive form like the Spanish flu of 1918-19.

So far, judging from figures collected from all over the world, 80% of victims are people under 30 years of age. Those over 60 years of age who are normally more susceptible to flu, are less likely to get it.

This may be because older people have built up immunity to it from other similar flu strains in the past, the ECDC report says.

Nevertheless, those most likely to die from it will be the very old and very young children under two years of age, the experts warn. At particular risk are pregnant women, people with an existing severe health problem and those who are morbidly obese, with a BMI of over 40.

The ECDC warns hospitals to be prepared for an increase in patients as between 1%-2% of people (up to 24,000 in Ireland) will need to be treated in hospital.

The current flu vaccine is not effective against this strain that is a mixture of genes from pigs, humans and chickens. A vaccine against the H1N1 (Swine flu) has not yet been developed, but the pharmaceutical sector expects it will be available by October.

Sixty million Europeans will need priority vaccination against swine flu, EU health commissioner Androulla Vassiliou has said. That 60 million will need priority vaccination against the flu, but there will not be enough for everyone.

Health ministers from the 27 member states are to meet in October to decide on the practical details of the vaccination programme.