Small parties and independents set to be the big winners at local level

THE key backdrop to the 2002 general election was the public view on the competence of both the Government and the opposition.

This will also be the key issue of the 2004 local and European elections. In 2002, the voters re-elected the outgoing Fianna Fáil-led Government, albeit again with the restraining influence of the Progressive Democrats.

However, on election day 2002 the electorate changed the opposition, and changed it radically.

Going into the 2002 election, more than 90% of the opposition deputies were members of Fine Gael or Labour, but in the new Dáil less than 65% of the opposition are members of either of these two parties.

Fianna Fáil will hold its own in the European elections and perhaps be down one seat because of the redraw of constituencies. However, it is certain that FF is going to suffer seat losses in the local elections. That is not unusual for Government parties.

The size of those losses will depend very much on the nature of the turnout. It will also depend on the ability of sitting FF councillors to hold on to their seats. All the indications are that those in Dublin will find it harder to do so than those in the rest of the country.

The difficulty for the largest Government party is that, rightly or wrongly, there is a perception among too many voters in the middle ground that FF overstated and over-promised at the time of the 2002 election.

Instead of being able to celebrate falling hospital waiting lists, the Government's achievement is being held up against an election campaign promise to abolish waiting lists entirely. Instead of being able to take bows for a reduction in public order offences, the Government is instead being slagged off daily for not yet recruiting 2,000 gardaí.

Bertie Ahern's irritation at his party's Euro launch on Monday derived from a frustration that the media continue to harp on this theme of broken promises rather than on the turnaround in economic fortunes to which the stringent approach to public finances for the first year of this Government has given rise.

Bertie Ahern himself the shrewdest of political analysts knows that the prime objective of his party's campaign for the next three weeks must be to do everything possible to correct or dispel this perception. His irritation was also directed, with some justification, at elements of the media who, perhaps smarting at the fact that they allowed themselves to be taken in during the 2002 campaign, are now over-compensating and adopting the role of a political opposition rather than their more proper role as an impartial, if sceptical, fourth estate.

What is most striking in the lead in to these elections, however, is that even at this time of annoyance with the Government, voters are not flocking to the main opposition parties.

Enda Kenny has a lot riding on this election, and he knows it. He has had considerable success in restoring Fine Gael's internal morale and in motivating it for this new electoral contest. The party has put together an impressive line-up of Euro election candidates and may be rewarded with a European parliament seat in each of the four constituencies. However, in the more important contest that is the local elections, FG must lose seats. In 1999, FG got more county and city council seats than it was mathematically entitled to.

This, combined with continuing low poll figures and the withering of some of its organisation in pockets where it's lost high profile TDs, means that FG seat losses could be on a scale, perhaps, as large as Fianna Fáil's.

In theory, FF and FG difficulties should be Labour's opportunity. However, in the 2002 elections Labour stagnated and the space in the Dáil chamber left vacant by FG losses was instead filled by new deputies from the Green Party, Sinn Féin and a new crop of Independents.

A generation gap and the dominance of its TDs and former TDs in its constituency organisations contributed much to Labour's problems then. Labour badly needs to break this cycle of stagnation on June 11. It remains to be seen whether the fresher looking line-up of local election candidates showcased at Labour's recent one-day conference will be given the space to blossom in their local election areas.

In the Euro poll Labour should pick up a seat in Leinster where Peter Cassells' profile and the retirement of the outgoing Green MEP Nuala Ahern will help. On balance Labour should also hold its European parliament seat in Dublin, although as the Euro battle in the capital gets increasingly competitive (and increasingly bizarre) even that seat can't be taken for granted.

If the electorate looks beyond the larger opposition parties to the extent that some expect, then the Greens will be the success story of this election.

THE Greens did very badly in the 1999 local elections. In this campaign their initial postering (featuring tomatoes and windmills), although peculiar, has become a talking point and is consistent with the party's positioning which is more about issues than candidates. The party has more candidates in the field than the other smaller parties and is already sitting on half a quota in many local electoral areas. Any jump in this vote, coupled with the capacity of Green candidates to attract transfers from all sides, could see a significant increase in the party's membership of local authorities. The PDs have again sat out the European election race, but in the locals they have a wider geographic spread on their candidates than previously and a lot of new faces. In places like South Dublin and Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown it is clear from the type of candidates they are offering that they are targeting disenchanted Fine Gael voters. Ironically, the smaller Government party could actually reap benefits from a public mood of discontent with the main opposition parties.

SF are going to make local election gains. In Dublin this will largely be confined to the city council area and they could win a dozen seats there. However, in the Dublin European constituency which by comparison covers the area of all four Dublin local authorities SF could find the task of winning a European seat more difficult than initially expected.

One might expect that a campaign launch dominated by questions about the Gerry McCabe killers and allegations about paramilitary criminal activity would not help Mary Lou McDonald's chances.

However, precedent shows that such controversies have limited impact on SF's vote share, although they may have some impact on her ability to attract transfers (if she needs them).

In those local electoral areas where the voters have no Green or SF or PD candidate to turn to, then new independents may emerge as viable seat winners. Because of the local nature of their base national pundits seldom notice the rise of these types of independents.

However, such independents proved popular to voters unhappy with the main opposition parties in 2002. There is no reason to believe that they won't prove equally popular in 2004. Some pain for the Government but a more incoherent shape to the opposition may be the ultimate outcome of this June elections.