Searing World Cup heat could scupper chances of contenders Spain, Portugal, and Argentina

Reigning champions Argentina begin their campaign against Algeria in Kansas City Stadium on Tuesday. If they hope to book their place in the final in New Jersey, they'll be projected to play six of their eight games in venues above 28C. File photo: Nick Potts/PA

The wildcard of extreme heat in the World Cup could bear a significant impact on the favourite nations' route to the final, while boosting the chances of one of the host nations, the US.

An analysis commissioned by climate campaign group Round Our Way examined the temperatures World Cup nations are expected to face in their potential route to the World Cup Final across different venues.

Spanning across the USA, Mexico and Canada, temperatures for matches are expected to average around 23C. It will likely be the hottest edition of the tournament since 1994, when the World Cup was last held in the US.

FIFA’s heat index lists 28C as the temperature threshold at which player performance can be significantly impaired.

Reigning champions Argentina begin their campaign against Algeria in Kansas City Stadium on Tuesday. If they hope to book their place in the final in New Jersey, they'll be projected to play six of their eight games in venues above 28C.

Alongside Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo will be making his sixth appearance at the World Cup. If he is to make his first World Cup final, Portugal will likely have to play up to six matches in extreme heat. 

Bookies’ favourites Spain will also play a projected near six games in performance-debilitating heat.

France (3.7 games) and England (4.8) face fewer weather extremes, while host nation, the US, serves as one of the ultimate benefactors of the tournament schedule.

Just 3.2 of the USA’s games are likely to be played in temperatures exceeding 28C — the lowest figure of any top-16 FIFA-ranked team.

“Elite footballers are highly conditioned to perform across a range of environments, but repeated exposure to challenging weather conditions can create additional physiological and recovery demands over the course of a tournament,” said Liz Brown, director of Alma Physiotherapy in Bristol.

“Higher temperatures increase cardiovascular strain, fluid loss, perceived exertion, and recovery requirements. These factors can contribute to greater fatigue and may affect physical performance, concentration, and decision-making, particularly when recovery time between matches is limited.” 

Temperatures were a defining narrative of the FIFA Club World Cup that was held across the US last summer.

All World Cup matches will pause for three minutes in each half to facilitate a water break, regardless of temperature.

CLIMATE & SUSTAINABILITY HUB