Collapse in heroin production may cause new wave of deadly opioids

Family and friends of people who died from opiods overdoses in Broome County New York State at the annual memorial last August with 277 names represented on replica headstones. There are fears that the opioids epidemic could sweep through Europe too. Picture: Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis/Getty

EU drug and police agencies are warning that the almost complete collapse of opium production in Afghanistan last year could mean a shift in the heroin market towards the supply into Europe of highly dangerous synthetic opioids.

Experts said that, as there is typically a one-year time lag between opium crops and heroin on the street, it may not be until 2025 that the impact will be felt — but stress the need for preparedness.

Synthetic opioids, which have devastated the US, are causing increasing concern in Europe, with 70 non-fatal overdoses reported in Dublin and Cork last November and December, caused by a particularly potent version called nitazine.

The HSE continues to have a ‘red alert’ in place for heroin users and said there was a risk of its availability spreading to other parts of the country.

Last week, Britain’s National Crime Agency revealed that there had been 65 deaths from nitazines in the previous six months, with concerns that the synthetic opiate is also being found in a completely different market — in counterfeit anti-anxiety tablets bought online.

Afghan opium farms, the source of 80% of global heroin supplies, are being destroyed by the Taliban. Europol and the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction fear that could drive a surge in the use of even deadlier opioids. Picture: Abdul Khaliq/AP

The HSE said nitazines have only been found in the heroin market here, and sold as heroin in brown powder, but it is concerned at the developments regarding tablet contamination in the UK.

In a new report, the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) and Europol, the EU police agency, said the production of opium in Afghanistan — the source of 80% of global heroin supplies — fell by 95% in 2023.

“At present there are no signals of heroin shortages on the European market,” the ‘EU Drug Market: Heroin and other opioids’ report stated.

“However, data for 2023 shows that the area under poppy cultivation in Afghanistan has been substantially reduced.”

Estimated opium production stood at 333 tonnes in 2023, compared to over 6,000 tonnes annually over the previous six years.

The report said that if the drop is sustained beyond 2023 it would have “major implications” for the European heroin market.

The clampdown on heroin production in Afghanistan means the drug is being replaced with opioids on the streets of Europe, including Ireland. Picture: Paul Faith/PA

This collapse is the result of a ban imposed by the extremist Taliban regime in April 2022.

The report said the experience from previous heroin shortages was that it led to increased rates of polydrug use among heroin users, the adulteration of heroin, and the substitution of heroin with “more harmful synthetic opioids, including potent fentanyl derivatives and nitazines”.

In the US, synthetic opioids, primarily fentanyl, were linked to more than 70,000 deaths in 2021 alone.

“While it will take time for the developments in Afghanistan to impact on Europe, a decrease in heroin availability could lead to market gaps being filled by potent synthetic opioids, with significant negative impacts on public health and security,” the report said.

Asked whether the recent surge of nitazine cases in Ireland could continue or even worsen, report co-author Teodora Groshkova said: “The trajectory of nitazines and other synthetic opiates in the EU remains uncertain, but there is concern that the trend could persist and potentially worsen.”

She said monitoring was key and that the EMCDDA was developing its capacity in this regard. She said what was particularly worrying about the synthetic opioids is that they are “hundreds of times more potent than heroin”.

The report said the presence of Mexican cartels in Europe “further substantiates the potential threat”, not least because they are the largest supplier of illicit opioids, mainly fentanyl, to the US.

Last September, gardaí revealed that Irish gangs had travelled to Mexico as part of a European criminal consortium to discuss the possibility of importing fentanyl into Europe.

The Irish Examiner reported that the Irish gang, based in west Dublin and led by two brothers, was the country’s largest heroin trafficking outfit. Gardaí said the gang, along with European associates, met with the Sinaloa cartel, one of the main producers of fentanyl.

Asked if this was a trend among European gangs, Ms Groshkova said they did not have specific details about such activities, but added: “The links between European criminal groups and cartels do suggest that possibilities for such collaborations exist.”

Fellow EMCDDA analyst and report co-author Laurent Laniel said the “big question” was whether or not the Taliban ban will hold and said this was a difficult one to answer.

He said the country was under “serious economic pressure”, not least a freeze of foreign aid.

He said the collapse in opium production in 2023 “may take a while before we feel the effect, it may not be in 2024 or 2025 even”.

The report said that, despite seizures of heroin doubling in Europe between 2011 and 2021, retail prices of the drug have dropped and the purity had increased — all the signs of a stable market.

The report mentions Ireland’s largest ever haul of heroin — some 89kg — which was seized at Rosslare Port in August 2021.

It said the bulk of it was bound for Germany and was to be broken up between seven EU countries, including Ireland.