Fianna Fáil poised to retain seats in new constituency

FIANNA FÁIL is poised to pip Fine Gael for the last seat in the new constituency of Roscommon/South Leitrim, according to the findings of the latest opinion poll.

The Roscommon Herald/Red C opinion poll shows that Fine Gael, with 41%, Is set to have a higher first preference vote than Fianna Fáil, at 37%.

However, because of a more even spread of votes between the two FF candidates and the likelihood it will pick up more transfers, the poll predicts that it will narrowly prevail in the three-seat constituency.

All three sitting TDs — Denis Naughten (FG), Michael Finneran (FF) and John Ellis (FF) — will be returned, if these findings are repeated on polling day.

So the indication is that Fine Gael Senator Frankie Feighan will lose out by a tiny margin.

However, the very strong showings for the Sinn Féin candidate Martin Kenny and the independent candidate John Kelly (both at 9%) means that the outcome is unpredictable.

Indeed, with a relatively small swing, either of these candidates could become realistic contenders for a seat in a constituency that has bucked against the national trend in the past.

What is abundantly clear at this stage is that Fine Gael’s Denis Naughten is the front-runner and will be elected on the first count.

At 27%, his results follow a pattern in this series of polls of a very strong showing for the most prominent TD in the constituency.

However, the poll suggests that with 14% support, Mr Feighan may struggle in subsequent counts, and much will depend on the ability of the North Roscommon politician to attract votes from across the border in Leitrim.

The two FF candidates are within a percentage point of each other, with Mr Finneran at 19% and Leitrim-based John Ellis at 18%.

But the findings do not necessarily suggest that the two big parties will fully dictate the outcome of the constituency.

The independent, Mr Kelly, topped the poll in the local elections in Ballagh-derreen and may be endorsed by the local hospital action committee — hospital candidate the late Tom Fox was twice elected in Roscommon.

SF’s Mr Kenny is another Leitrim-based candidate who will need to win more first preferences if he has any chance.

Labour’s Hughie Baxter is at 3%, while Garreth McDaid of the Green Party (a son of Donegal TD Jim McDaid) is at 1%.