Pubs under threat as number of drinkers fall
A study by Amárach Consulting warns that publicans are sailing into a perfect storm which will see "a much reduced 'fleet' making it through to the other side in the months and years ahead'. Although the smoking ban is the most imminent threat, populations trends are also working against the country's 7,000 publicans.
The number of 18-24 year olds has peaked and is set to decline by over 1% per annum for the next 10 years. Publicans can no longer rely on this high spending, high attending group to boost their sales. The study which was independently carried out by Amárach Consulting and not commissioned by any interest group also points out that the value of pub sales has increased dramatically since 1996 through regular price increases.
However, the volume of drink sold has remained steady and has actually fallen for the last two years.
With taxes on spirits and cider increased over the last two years, the study said an aggressive budget this month could see drink sales fall below 1996 levels. "Publicans have over-fished the previously fertile waters of affluent, regular pub-goers and are now faced with a devastating collapse in stocks," the study said.
The senior consultant who prepared the study said it was vital for pubs to adapt to the trends if they were to survive. " It all depends on the response of the publicans. I think the jury is out [on how many pubs will close] but the pub as we know it, is going to fundamentally change," said Jennifer Legge of Amárach Consulting.
Many pub owners are turning their establishments into 'gastro-pubs' with a much higher quality of food and others are preparing outdoor smoking areas. Ms Legge said that publicans would have to offer "true value-for money".
"At the moment, pub prices are way above prices in off licences and that's why people are drinking at home," she said.
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