Oscar predictions: Esther McCarthy's tips on who is going to win on Sunday

Is Cillian Murphy about to make Oscars history? Will Irish-produced Poor Things get more than one Academy Award? Film writer Esther McCarthy weighs up the likely outcomes 

The 2024 Academy Awards take place on Sunday. 

Best Picture 

• American Fiction 
• Anatomy of a Fall 
• Barbie 
• The Holdovers 
• Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Maestro 
• Oppenheimer 
• Past Lives
• Poor Things 
• The Zone of Interest 

Florence Pugh as Jean Tatlock and Cillian Murphy as J. Robert Oppenheimer.  

 This year’s Best Picture line-up is an impressive one, featuring drama, comedy, romance, Barbie and two acclaimed films not in the English language. This category is decided by a preferential ballot - much like the Irish electoral system - where voters choose in order of preference. 

What could that mean for Poor Things, produced by Ireland’s Element Pictures? The feminist Frankenstein tale is up for an impressive eleven awards and had a strong run at the Baftas, winning five awards and indicating its popularity. Irish producers Ed Guiney and Andrew Lowe would be among those taking to the podium if it wins

. In recent years it’s become more unusual for one movie to dominate Oscar night, with the Academy expanding its membership to almost 10,000 voters. But that could change this year, with Oppenheimer up for 13 Oscars and favourite to scoop many of them. A win at the recent Producers Guild Awards - which corresponds closest to Best Picture - makes Oppenheimer the firm favourite. The much-admired Zone of Interest could be this year’s dark horse.

The Frontrunner: Oppenheimer

The Contender: Poor Things 

Best Director

• Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall 
• Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer 
• Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things 
• Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone. Picture: Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images

This year’s director category is a very strong one, with a good case to be made for every nominee. But Christopher Nolan has been winning all over the place this awards season, most notably in the closest corresponding Directors Guild Awards. I’m rooting for Yorgos Lathimos for the wildly creative and daring Poor Things.

The Frontrunner: Christopher Nolan 

The Contender: Yorgos Lanthimos 

Actor in a Leading Role 

• Bradley Cooper, Maestro 
• Colman Domingo, Rustin 
• Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers 
• Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer 
• Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Da’Vine Joy Randolph stars as Mary Lamb, Dominic Sessa as Angus Tully and Paul Giamatti as Paul Hunham. 

Until recent weeks, this was regarded as a very tight contest between our own Cillian Murphy, doing career-best work in Oppenheimer, and Paul Giamatti, so funny and cantankerous in The Holdovers. But the Corkman’s wins at the Screen Actors Guild and Bafta awards look to have given him the edge to become a part of Irish Oscars history. His Trojan work in every scene of Oppenheimer has earned him the wide respect of his peers. This is Murphy’s time.

The Frontrunnner: Cillian Murphy and Cork for the win 

The Contender: Paul Giamatti 

Actress in a Leading Role

• Annette Bening, Nyad Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall 
• Carey Mulligan, Maestro 
• Emma Stone, Poor Things 

Lily Gladstone in a scene from Killers of the Flower Moon

This is regarded as a too tight to call contest between Emma Stone, brilliant in Poor Things, and Gladstone’s strong work in Killers of the Flower Moon. Gladstone would make history by becoming the first Native American to win Best Actress, and you get the sense that’s a ceiling Academy members would love to smash. Her Screen Actors Guild awards has bolstered her chances, but there is a lot of deserved love for Stone’s daring work in Poor Things, and she won a BAFTA for that performance.

The Frontrunner: Emma Stone

The Contender: Lily Gladstone 

Actor in a Supporting Role 

• Sterling K Brown, American Fiction
• Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer
• Ryan Gosling, Barbie 
• Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things 

Emma Stone and Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things.

Robert Downey Jr has been picking up awards all over the place for his showy performance in Oppenheimer, and is a definite frontrunner here. But this is one of the categories in which we could see an upset - a Ryan Gosling win would allow the Academy to show its love for Barbie. My favourite would be Mark Ruffalo, hilariously over the top as a cad who gets his comeuppance in Poor Things.

The Frontrunner: Robert Downey Jr 

The Contender: Mark Ruffalo 

Actress in a Supporting Role 

• Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer 
• Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple 
• America Ferrera, Barbie 
• Jodie Foster, Nyad Da’Vine 
• Joy Randolph, The Holdovers 

America Ferrera, Margot Robbie, Alexandra Shipp, and Ariana Greenblatt in Barbie

Da’Vine Joy Randolph has been cleaning up on the awards front this year and is a firm favourite to win an Oscar for her empathetic, no-nonsense performance as a chef getting her life back together in The Holdovers. There is a lot of love for Danielle Brooks’ work in The Color Purple, but I only see this going one way.

The Frontrunner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph 

The Contender: Danielle Brooks 

Original Screenplay 

• Anatomy of a Fall 
• The Holdovers 
• Maestro 
• May December 
• Past Lives 

Nora (Greta Lee) and Hae Sung (Teo Yoo) in Past Lives

With the Writer’s Guild Awards delayed until April following the WGA strike, we have less indication of where the two screen writing Oscars might go this year.

Anatomy of a Fall is regarded as favourite among pollsters, though there is absolutely a strong case for every nominee here. The Holdovers’ witty and talky screenplay will place it in contention. I would love to see Celine Song’s stunning and very moving Past Lives sneak a win here.

The Frontrunner: Anatomy of a Fall 

The Contender: The Holdovers

 Adapted Screenplay

• American Fiction 
• Barbie 
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest 

A scene from Zone of Interest.

Again, a very strong category, with American Fiction (a winner at the Baftas) currently a narrow favourite for its quick-witted satirical storytelling. Do not rule out Oppenheimer in this category if Christopher Nolan’s film has a sweep on Oscar night.

The Frontrunner: American Fiction

The Contender: Oppenheimer 

Cinematography

• El Conde 
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things 

Robbie Ryan at the Cork International Film Festival gala night Irish Premiere of Yorgos Lanthimos’ award-winning film Poor Things. Picture: David Creedon

Irish eyes will be on Robbie Ryan - one of the finest cinematographers working today - for his stunning and highly creative work on Poor Things. But Ryan is up against some strong competition here, with lots of love for Hoyte van Hoytema’s striking work on Oppenheimer. Killers of the Flower Moon is a serious contender here also.

The Frontrunner: Oppenheimer 

The Contender: Poor Things 

Production Design

• Barbie 
• Killers of the Flower Moon 
• Napoleon 
• Oppenheimer 
• Poor Things 

Joaquin Phoenix in Napoleon.

Irish-produced Poor Things is in with a great shout here for the stunning design work and set decoration that made the film’s aesthetic so unique. But just look at that competition. The teams behind Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer and Napoleon all successfully created singular worlds in their films.

The Frontrunner: Poor Things

The Contender: Barbie

• The Academy Awards take place on Sunday night from about 11pm. ITV, UTV, and YouTube will have live broadcasts of various parts of the awards. RTÉ2 will have a highlights show on Monday night.