US tariff regime expected to slow domestic economic growth

Exchequer returns show a Government surplus of €2.8bn as of the end of April

Ministers Paschal Donohoe and Jack Chambers at the Department of Finance after the publication of the Annual Progress Report 2025 and April’s Fiscal Monitor. Picture: Leah Farrell / RollingNews.ie

Growth in the domestic Irish economy is expected to slow significantly by the end of 2026 should the tariff regime implemented by US president Donald Trump continue at its current rate, a new economic analysis by the Department of Finance has found.

The analysis shows modified domestic demand (MDD) — the preferred measure of the economy that strips out the activity of multinationals and airplane leasing companies — was expected to grow by 2.5% this year, and 2.8% next year, before the tariffs were implemented.