Bank of America strategist hails 'awesome' outlook for US shares

Savita Subramanian says many investors are too focused on the negatives because they’ve been conditioned by 'cataclysmic events' like the covid pandemic and the global financial crisis

Bank of America's Savita Subramanian says the US economy looks good, a backdrop that will continue to bode well for US shares. File photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

As naysayers fret over a potential slowdown from the prospect of US interest rates remaining elevated for longer, Bank of America's Savita Subramanian says the US economy looks good, a backdrop that will continue to bode well for US shares. 

Although some data points have softened — from labour market tightness to manufacturing and retail sales — most measures of the economy are normalising from unsustainably lofty levels rather than pointing to a slowdown, she said. 

The probability of a recession or stagflation, when inflation remains persistently high while the economy slows, is 10% or less, according to Ms Subramanian.

“Things today are actually kind of awesome,” the bank’s head of US equity and quantitative strategy said, adding that many investors are too focused on the negatives because they’ve been conditioned by “cataclysmic events” like the covid pandemic and the global financial crisis. 

"Most of the time, we get some semblance of Goldilocks,” Ms Subramanian said. “That’s the view that we’re espousing until things really start to fall off a cliff.” 

Ms Subramanian reiterated BofA’s year-end S&P 500 target of 5,400, slightly below Wednesday’s level. While the strategist has maintained her constructive view on US equities, she said that extremely bearish sentiment is no longer the tailwind it was, with Wall Street strategists’ recommended allocations to stocks hitting a two-year high in May. 

Bloomberg