A year after the US Navy SEAL raid that killed Osama bin Laden, the al Qaida that carried out the September 11 attacks is essentially gone, but its affiliates remain a threat to America, anti-terror officials say.
Al Qaida’s new leader, Ayman al-Zawahri, still aspires to attack the US, but his Pakistan-based group is scrambling to survive, under fire from CIA drone strikes and lying low for fear of another US raid. That has lessened the threat of another complex attack like a nuclear dirty bomb or a biological weapon, the officials say.
Al Qaida’s loyal offshoots are still dangerous, especially Yemen’s al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP. While not yet able to carry out complex attacks inside the US, such groups are capable of hitting Western targets overseas and are building armies and expertise while plotting violence, according to senior US counter-terrorism officials.
“Each will seek opportunities to strike Western interests in its operating area, but each group will have different intent and ability to execute those plans,” said Robert Cardillo, a deputy director at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
The shift from a single, deadly group to a more amorphous threat may not seem much of an improvement. But the US believes that the bin Laden raid and continued US anti-terror action have reduced the chance of a sophisticated, multi-pronged attack on the US like the attacks of September 11 or the deadly bombings in Madrid in 2004 and in London in 2005.
An attack with chemical, biological or nuclear weapons by any al Qaida-related terror group also seems less likely in the coming year, Mr Cardillo says.
Zawahri has not managed to harness multiple groups into a cohesive force focused on a single, catastrophic attack, officials said.
Al Qaida’s key affiliates in Yemen, Somalia, Iraq and North Africa have pledged allegiance to Zawahri, but unimpressed with his leadership, “have not offered the deference they gave bin Laden”, Mr Cardillo said. Zawahri has a reputation as an abrasive manager and a less than charismatic speaker.
That loss of a single, charismatic voice likely means “multiple voices will provide inspiration for the movement”, leading to a bout of soul-searching as to what the splinter groups want to target and why, Mr Cardillo said.
“There will be a vigorous debate about local versus global jihad within and among terror organisations,” he said.
Another potentially positive sign is al Qaida’s failure to hijack the Arab Spring revolt in Egypt, Tunisia or Libya. On the negative side, the officials said, al Qaida was working hard to co-opt rebels in Syria.
If the political wrangling in any of the post-revolt nations fails to produce stable, responsive governments, al Qaida and its ilk may be able to seize the void, the officials said.
That is what has occurred in Yemen, where AQAP has taken full advantage of the local government’s preoccupation fighting multiple political opponents. AQAP has grown in size and territory covered despite constant and expanded targeting by Yemeni and US counter-terrorist forces, the officials said.
Another threat cited by the officials: Home-grown extremists, either lone actors or small groups inspired by al Qaida, who remain intent on committing violence.
The officials also noted that every time US anti-terror forces strike, they must take care to avoid everything from civilian casualties to hitting the wrong target, lest the blowback produce more enemies.
“The key challenge will be balancing aggressive counter-terrorism operations, with the risk of exacerbating the anti-Western global agenda” of al Qaida and its affiliates, Mr Cardillo said.