Atlantic hurricane increase 'not due to global warming'

A top US government scientist has performed a U-turn on climate change, saying global warming is not responsible for the recent increase in Atlantic hurricanes.

In fact, warmer temperatures will actually reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and those making landfall, research meteorologist Tom Knutson says in a study released yesterday.

In the past, Mr Knutson had raised concerns about the effects of climate change on storms.

His new paper has the potential to heat up a simmering debate among meteorologists about current and future effects of global warming in the Atlantic.

Ever since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, hurricanes have often been seen as a symbol of global warming’s wrath. Many climate change experts have tied the rise of hurricanes in recent years to global warming and hotter waters that fuel them.

Another group of experts, those who study hurricanes and who are more often sceptical about global warming, say there is no link. They attribute the recent increase to a natural multi-decade cycle.

What makes this study different is Mr Knutson, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s fluid dynamics lab in Princeton, New Jersey.

He has warned about the harmful effects of climate change and has even complained in the past about being censored by the Bush administration on past studies on the dangers of global warming.

He said his new study, based on a computer model, argued “against the notion that we’ve already seen a really dramatic increase in Atlantic hurricane activity resulting from greenhouse warming”.

The study, published online in the journal Nature Geoscience, predicts that by the end of the century the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic will fall by 18%.

The number of hurricanes making landfall in the United States and its neighbours – anywhere west of Puerto Rico – will drop by 30% because of wind factors.

The biggest storms – those with winds of more than 110mph – would only decrease in frequency by 8%. Tropical storms, those with winds between 39 and 73 mph, would decrease by 27%.

It is not all good news from Mr Knutson’s study, however. His computer model also forecasts that hurricanes and tropical storms will be wetter and fiercer. Rainfall within 30 miles of a hurricane should jump by 37% and wind strength should increase by about 2%, the study says.

Mr Knutson also says this study significantly underestimates the increase in wind strength.

Other scientists criticised his computer model.

MIT hurricane meteorologist Kerry Emanuel, while praising Mr Knutson as a scientist, called his conclusion “demonstrably wrong” based on a computer model that does not look properly at storms.

Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist, said Mr Knutson’s computer model was poor at assessing tropical weather and “fail to replicate storms with any kind of fidelity”.

Mr Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, said it was not just the number of hurricanes that mattered, “it is also the intensity, duration and size, and this study falls short on these issues”.

Mr Knutson admitted weaknesses in his computer model and said it primarily gave a coarse overview, not an accurate picture on individual storms and storm strength. He said the latest model did not produce storms surpassing 112mph.

NOAA hurricane meteorologist Chris Landsea, who was not part of the study, praised Mr Knutson’s work as “very consistent with what’s being said all along”.

“I think global warming is a big concern, but when it comes to hurricanes the evidence for changes is pretty darn tiny,” Mr Landsea said.

Hurricane season starts on June 1 in the Atlantic and a Colorado State University forecast predicts about a 50% more active than normal storm season this year. NOAA puts out its own seasonal forecast on May 22.

In a normal year about 10 named storms form. Six become hurricanes and two become major hurricanes. On average, about five hurricanes hit the US every three years.