Prodi govt fights for survival in Italian Senate vote

Premier Romano Prodi’s nine-month-old government hangs on a confidence vote this evening in the Italian Senate, where the centre-left leader is pitching for outside support to shore up his shaky coalition.

The looming possibility of early elections – and a return to power by conservative leader Silvio Berlusconi – was expected to convince Prodi’s sometimes troublesome allies to back him in the upper chamber vote.

Last Wednesday a Senate defeat on foreign policy, including Italy’s military mission in Afghanistan, led Mr Prodi to resign.

The Italian president then ordered Mr Prodi to see if he could muster a majority in a confidence vote in Parliament.

If Mr Prodi loses the confidence vote, his government would be forced to resign, which could mean early elections just as opinion polls are showing a sharp drop in his coalition’s popularity.

Mr Prodi narrowly defeated Mr Berlusconi in April elections.

Some of Mr Prodi’s far-left allies have said they will give the premier their support in the confidence vote but will refuse to back the government on continued funding for Italy’s participation in the Nato military operations in Afghanistan.

A vote on funding is expected soon, and Mr Prodi might have to rely on backing from pro-US politicians in the Berlusconi’s bloc to ensure passage.

While saying they were sure Mr Prodi would win Wednesday’s confidence vote, some coalition Senators acknowledged he faced difficulties in continuing to govern.

“We will need the coalition to feel more compact than it was during the past months,” said long-time Communist leader Armando Cossutta as he arrived at the Senate.

Should Mr Prodi lose the confidence vote, President Giorgio Napolitano could call for elections long before the expected 2011 date, or ask someone else to try to put together a majority in Parliament.

Mr Prodi made his pitch for survival last night, reaching out in a Senate speech to pro-Vatican centrists in hopes of broadening his base in the upper chamber, where his forces have held a paper-thin majority since winning the elections.

If the possibility of new elections is not enough to guarantee the loyalty of all the coalition politicians in the Senate, Mr Prodi could be bailed out in the confidence vote from some of the senators-for-life who are outside political parties.

Assuming Mr Prodi survives in the Senate, a confidence vote was scheduled for the lower Chamber of Deputies later in the week, but a comfortable majority of Prodi’s forces there should not present any problems.