Iraq report increases pressure on Bush

A long-awaited study expected to call for a US change of course in Iraq is intensifying pressure on President George Bush to find a way out of a war that has lost favour with the American public.

The high-profile Iraq Study Group planned to release its recommendations today on a new Iraq strategy after briefing Bush and congressional leaders.

The bi-partisan commission is expected to advise gradually phasing the mission of US troops in Iraq from combat to training and supporting Iraqi units, with a goal of pulling back American combat troops by early 2008. It is also expected to urge a more energetic effort to involve Iraq’s neighbours in ending violence there, including Iran and Syria, which the US considers pariah states.

The commission also will recommend that Bush threaten to reduce economic and military support for the Iraqi government if it does not meet certain benchmarks for improving security, The Washington Post reported.

Bush has rejected establishing timetables for withdrawing troops and has said he was not looking for “some kind of graceful exit out of Iraq”.

The Iraq Study Group – five Republicans and five Democrats – is led by Bush family friend and Republican James Baker, a former secretary of state, and former Democratic Rep. Lee Hamilton. It is the first major bi-partisan assessment of US options in Iraq, and has captured the attention of lawmakers and voters who saw last month’s Democratic congressional election sweep as a rejection of Bush’s steadfast commitment to the conflict.

The report comes as Robert Gates, who is coasting toward Senate confirmation as replacement for Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, told politicians a fresh approach was needed in Iraq. In a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing yesterday, Gates said he thought the US was not winning – contradicting Bush who said onOctober 25: “Absolutely, we’re winning.”

Gates was confirmed by the committee by a 24-0 vote.

The commission’s findings and Gates’ promise of change has added political momentum for a new policy in Iraq, putting Bush on the defensive. Since the election, Bush himself has acknowledged the need for new approaches to the war and has initiated an administration assessment of options in Iraq.

Yet he also has said the panel’s voice will be just one of many on which he will base his decisions. He has warned against a hasty withdrawal of US troops in Iraq, while congressional Democrats say some troops should leave right away to pressure the Iraqi government to boost its own efforts.

“We’re going to give it a careful review,” White House press secretary Tony Snow said yesterday. “As we have mentioned, there are other ongoing studies within the administration.”

A senior administration official said “there will be some disagreements but a lot we can work with,” but offered no detail. The official said Bush’s reaction was “generally pretty positive.”

The Iraq war has surpassed the length of American involvement in the Second World War, and US deaths have passed 2,900. A relentless insurgency and the added complication of increased fighting between religious and ethnic factions have raised questions about whether Iraq is embroiled in a civil war and whether the US-backed government of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki will ever be able to calm the country.

Polls shows that only about one in three Americans approve of Bush’s handling of Iraq.

Politicians including Republican Sen. John Warner say they are eager to hear outside voices on Iraq and step up congressional oversight. Warner, a Bush loyalist and Senate Armed Services Committee chairman, on Tuesday called on the president to consult with Democrats as well as Republicans on Iraq. Warner also urged Gates not to try to sidestep Congress or hold back honest advice for the president.

“You simply have to be fearless” when it comes to this job, Warner told the defence secretary nominee.