Electors unlikely to choose foreign successor

SOME Vatican insiders say that when cardinals come to elect a successor to Pope John Paul II they may prefer to return to a safe Italian candidate, like the vast majority of past pontiffs.

“After John Paul II, the tendency will be to elect an Italian, given centuries of tradition, and that this nationality doesn’t upset anyone, which wouldn’t be the case with an American, a German or a Frenchman,” one Vatican source said on condition of anonymity.

“I don’t think the college of electors will risk electing a foreigner. The Italians are the inner circle. They really know how the curia works,” another insider said, referring to the church’s bureaucracy.

John Paul II was the first non-Italian in more than 450 years to head the church. Highly conservative in doctrine and bluntly liberal in his social views, the pontiff has galvanised the Church.

Under John Paul II, the college of cardinals has become so internationalised and decentralised the next pope could come from anywhere in the world.

If this were to happen, strong candidates would include archbishops Dionigi Tettamanzi, 70, of Milan; Angelo Scola, 63, of Venice; Tarcisio Bertone, 70, of Genoa; Angelo Sodano, 77, the Vatican secretary of state; and Giovanni Battista Re, 71, the head of the Vatican congregation or department for bishops.

A backlash against the centralising tendencies shown by the curia under John Paul would see a new pope who would allow dioceses more autonomy.

That could eventually lead to theological reform and more diversity with the church but not for quite a few years, and many cardinals are determined that the church’s universal values must hold sway over local cultural differences.

And there are four possible candidates from Latin America, archbishops: Dario Castrillon Hoyos, 75, head of the congregation for the clergy; Oscar Andres Rodrigues Maradiaga, 62, of Tegucigalpa; Jorge Mario Bergoglio, 68 of Buenos Aires; and Claudio Hummes, 70, of Sao Paulo.

Once the cardinals are sealed off in an overcrowded set of rooms in the Vatican palace anything can happen. If experience is a guide, they are likely to start with a series of complementary votes for friends or candidates from their home region, before whittling down the field to a couple of key candidates thought capable of attracting the necessary two-thirds plus one of the votes.

But many cardinals are thought to want the next pope to return to the consensus spirit of the Second Vatican Ecumenical Council of the 1960s, which was responsible for opening the Church to the modern world.

If the cardinals decide to return to the Italian mould, some Vatican watchers say the front-running candidate could be Cardinal Dionigi Tettamanzi, archbishop of Milan, the biggest diocese in Europe.

A key player in the last conclave, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger of Germany, the Vatican’s doctrinal chief, is again thought to have the most influence on the eventual choice. He is also considered pope material.

The man wielding the most power at the moment is Vatican number two Secretary of State Cardinal Angelo Sodano, who like Cardinal Ratzinger is 77.

Another Italian possible is Venice Patriarch Angelo Scola, 63, who was likely to have Opus Dei backing.

The rules say cardinals taking part in the election of a successor to John Paul II must under pain of excommunication “abstain from any form of pact, agreement, promise or other commitment of any kind which could oblige them to give or deny their vote”.