A guarded welcome

Turkey’s entry to the EU could take 10 years, writes Europe Correspondent Ann Cahill.

AFTER 40 years’ knocking, the EU is expected to grudgingly open the door to Turkey today.

This afternoon, provided Austria agrees, the creaking front door may swing open to let the Turks into the hall, but many believe they will never get any farther.

Negotiations on everything from working practices to hygiene standards are expected to last at least 10 years.

Turkey must have agreement with each member state on 35 policy areas and swallow the massive amount of law that governs the union.

But then the real battle begins for the Turks, this time for the hearts and minds of countries with long memories and new fears.

Less than a third of citizens in the current 25 member states favour having Turkey as a member. Even in normally welcoming Ireland, just 38% believe they should join the union. Austrians are the most negative towards Turkey, with 80% against letting them in, while in France and Germany the figure is just 20%.

Perhaps this is not surprising - this day 476 years ago the Turks were tunnelling under Vienna’s walls and scaling its ramparts. The Austrians succeeded in repelling them and put a halt to the Ottoman Empire’s advance into central Europe.

Now they want their old ally, Croatia, to be fast-tracked into the union and with the support of other countries, including Ireland, this looks increasingly likely.

Once Croatia and any other Balkan countries that lived under the Ottoman yolk are in the EU, Turkey’s membership chances are further diminished.

But the dice is already loaded against Turkey, with politicians in Austria and France promising to give the last word to their voters in a referendum before Turkey could be admitted finally to the EU.

Europe’s relationship with Turkey is complex and confusing. On the one hand economies like Germany depend on its 2.5 million migrant Turkish workers and Turkey is their most important trading partner.

Turkey is a founding member of the United Nations, an early member of NATO, the Council of Europe and the OECD and an associate member of the EU since 1963. It proved itself during the Cold War and has close ties with the US as a consequence.

Until recently, Turkey made little progress in its quest to join the EU as it failed to reform its democracy and human rights. The army has never been out of power, human rights have been problematic and its economy suffered from corrupt and incompetent politicians and policies.

Ironically, since the Justice and Development party with its Islamic roots swept into power two years ago, major reforms have been agreed and put into operation in all areas.

The death penalty has been abolished; equal rights are enshrined in law; public broadcasting and education in minority languages has been achieved; and torture as an official interrogation tool by the police has been outlawed.

But fears that the real Turkey is intent on political Islam are regularly aroused because of events such as savage police attacks on women demonstrating in Istanbul last year and the government’s attempts to make adultery a crime even as they were voting through a major civil rights agenda.

The most recent attack by Turkey on its own credibility involved Cyprus. It invaded the island in 1974, annexing half of it. Turkey has refused to recognise the Greek Cypriot half despite it becoming an EU member last year.

However, Turkey signed a trade agreement with all ten new members - a de facto recognition of Cyprus - but Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly brought the issue to the fore again by announcing it “in no way” meant recognition.

The OECD reports that real progress is being made in tackling the chronic economic problems compounded by a black economy that accounts for 50% of employment.

Its economy is one of the fastest growing in the OECD, inflation has been reduced from 54% four years ago to around 7% this year, but it suffers from high debt and deficits. The average GDP per person at just over €6,100 a year is about a quarter of Ireland’s, and the same as Romania’s, which joins in 2007.

One of the least acknowledged problems about Turkish democracy is the role of the army. With half a million soldiers, it’s the largest in Europe and in NATO after the US, though poorly equipped now. It operates away from the full control of the government, largely deciding its own budget.

In a perverse way it has guaranteed the country’s democracy in the past and been a bulwark against Turkey changing the secular state status it adopted in 1923. Some believe now that its status prevents the country developing into a full democracy.

In about 10 years’ time the EU will have to decide if it wants Turkey as an insider or a significant outsider.

As an insider it would rival Germany in size and be the first Islamic country in a Christian club.

The case for Turkish membership has been made by its oldest and bitterest enemy, Greece. Former Defence Minister Yannos Papantoniou said: “We simply believe that if and when [Turkey] joins the European Union it will be obliged to observe these rules and values. This will by itself resolve most of our problems.”