Sky’s the limit for Munster, Leinster

DUST settled, pool stages over, quarter-final pairings decided. In another fantastic Heineken Cup season it’s been yet another good season also for Irish rugby.

Two teams, Leinster and Munster, in the last eight, both of them having topped their pool, with Leinster seeded number one, unbeaten in their six games. Given that a transitional Ulster side, with home wins over Stade Francais (joint second favourites to win the Cup) and Gloucester, finished just a point out of second spot in their group, given also that Connacht, with home and away quarter-final wins over Grenoble, are in the final four of the Parker Pen Challenge Cup, you would imagine that international respect for Irish rugby is at unprecedented levels, that a strong case is even being made for having all four Irish provinces in next season’s Heineken Cup. Imagine on.

Featuring a whole plethora of experts from every top rugby nation, northern and southern hemisphere, the unanimous reaction to the quarter-final pairings on Sky television this weekend was that both Leinster and Munster will be beaten, with the achievement of Connacht, of Ulster, barely meriting mention.

For all the progress that’s been made in Irish rugby, we are still seen as also-rans, still patronised, still being given the old “great battlers” pat on the head. But no respect.

Here’s my take on the quarter-finals. Assuming a full-strength Leinster take on a full-strength Leicester in Lansdowne Road, Leinster will cream them. I don’t mean just beat them; if they have any pride, having taken on board their dismissal by the experts this weekend, the unanimous insult, they will go out and pulverise Leicester. Contrary to opinion, they do have a tight five with enough power and pride to front up to Leicester; with Gleeson back in the fold, Jennings to come on if needed, they have the back three in the pack. Behind the scrum, given even a limited supply of ball, there isn’t a side to live with them, bar none. Leinster will win. Let’s go to Biarritz next; on Sunday, April 3, we’ll see another in a long list of great days for Munster. Blind optimism?

The National Coursing Meet is coming up in Clonmel in a few weeks; it’s a hugely demanding test of stamina, speed, strength, but it’s also the acid test of character, courage, grit, determination, never-say-die attitude without which no champion ever makes the grade. Every year there are the flyers, the ones who have set the qualifiers on fire, the “talking dog;” many a year, however, the Derby or Oaks is won by a greyhound that keeps on doing just enough to get to the next round. That’s Munster.

Think back over the group games. Castres, Ospreys, Harlequins, would all have harboured legitimate ambitions of making it to the quarter-finals; in six games, Munster lost once to that opposition, to Castres away, a game they should have won. The knock against them is that given the amount of primary possession they had in every game (including their loss) they should have scored a lot more tries, should have won their five games a lot more impressively, should have had at least two more bonus points, which would have given them a home draw. Well, how bad.

Anyway, let’s look at those bonus points: how many pool-toppers scored more bonus points than Munster? Two, I make it, Toulouse and Stade Francais, and the former had hapless Glasgow to play with, two guaranteed bonus points before a ball was kicked.

I hope Munster don’t start to believe all the shite. At full-strength, they are a quality side, in every position. Their pack, like the Leinster backline, is the best in Europe; Peter Stringer is still a premium passer, but is going to need a bit of forbearance as he makes a few adjustments, brings an extra dimension to his game. Ronan O’Gara is the most complete out-half there is; the backs do half their job, defence, as well as anyone.

The other half? Ball in hand? Recent evidence does suggest that they don’t have what it takes; recent evidence is wrong. With Anthony Horgan just having scored a fabulous try, the intercept try conceded last weekend, coming where and when it did, almost on the opposition goal-line, broke their confidence just when they were starting to look the part. Ignore that. Look at the personnel. Christian Cullen, Shaun Payne, Mike Mullins/John Kelly, Rob Henderson, Anthony Horgan; five internationals, the other one coming. You know what they say about form, and class? Book that flight, witness another slice of history.