Sea The Stars can repel the Ballydoyle hoardes
Remember through the winter and the manner in which Willie Mullins’ inmates dominated the entire bumper scene.
They rolled off the conveyor belt with almost frightening rapidity, week after week, to such an extent that no one seemed to have the foggiest notion as to which of them might be the best.
Mullins himself didn’t seem to know and experienced riders, such as Ruby Walsh and David Casey, also weren’t able to shed much light on the situation on the lead-in to Cheltenham.
Come the Weatherbys’ Champion Bumper at the Festival, Mullins ran no less than eight of his team.
But none of them managed to hit the jackpot, with Quel Esprit doing best in fourth place, beaten just under 13 lengths.
In many ways the Aidan O’Brien story, facing into the Derby at Epsom on Saturday, is very similar.
He is going to fire six shots at the target in the hope one of them will hit the proverbial bullseye.
For punters such a scenario is nothing short of a nightmare. Attempting to just solve the best from Ballydoyle is a massive puzzle in itself.
And the soundings coming out of Ballydoyle over the last two weeks or so have done nothing to help.
When Fame And Glory ran away with the Derrinstown at Leopardstown it seemed obvious to us mere mortals that at least we now knew here was the no. 1 challenger from Tipperary.
Then Johnny Murtagh indicated to Robert Hall on RTE that he was favouring Rip Van Winkle, on the basis he had a “soft spot” for the horse.
That “soft spot” then manifested itself this week into Aidan O’Brien finally revealing Murtagh would in fact partner Rip.
Last weekend it became even more complicated. All the vibes coming out of Ballydoyle was that Masterofthehorse was the one burning up the gallops.
The story broke on Friday night, into Saturday, that he had been the medium of some inspired support.
Often, you would take such mutterings with a grain of salt, putting it down to the bookmakers’ PR merchants making a big deal of something which was, well, small.
But that was not the case on this occasion and there is no doubt, following some most encouraging work by Masterofthehorse, Ballydoyle insiders grabbed all the 20-1 which was going.
So that now leaves us with at least three live possibilities and then there’s Black Bear Island, Age Of Aquarius and Golden Sword as well.
I think we can be virtually certain Golden Sword won’t win. He is a natural front-runner and likely to be sacrificed in the interests of a true-run race.
Age Of Aquarius scrambled home in his trial at Lingfield and he just doesn’t look good enough.
Black Bear Island won the Dante at York, but you could throw a blanket over plenty of them near the line and I’ll be surprised if he’s good enough either.
My idea of the winner? Quite frankly it has to be John Oxx’s Sea The Stars. He was a decent juvenile, but his performance when winning the English 2000 Guineas at Newmarket was far in advance of anything achieved as a two-year-old.
I know the breeding experts have expressed reservations about his ability to stay a mile and a half and that’s a worry.
Likewise, Oxx is on record as saying he feels it is no more than 50-50 he will get the trip. Armed with such knowledge, we will still go in with all guns blazing.
The Ballydoyle tactics are going to be fascinating. Will the pace in the race border on suicidal to try and get Sea The Stars off the bridle a fair way from home?
Or might they just want an even gallop, in an effort to help Rip Van Winkle to stay? Who knows?
Mick Kinane is a wily old fox and I have a feeling will ride Sea The Stars as if there are no doubts whatsoever regarding his stamina. We have to be with them, until knowing better!
