Olazabal may be the man to upset the odds

BELIEVE the bookmakers, and the 70th Masters is a straight fight between the United States and South Africa.

Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson lead the betting at 3 and 6 to 1 respectively, followed by Retief Goosen, 9 to 1, and Ernie Els, 11 to 1. It sounds like a reasonable scenario, even if it excludes world number 2 Vijay Singh and quite a few others who have legitimate claims on the green jacket.

And if the title is to go outside the US, it could well be on its way to Spain rather than the other side of the world. Sergio Garcia, now lumbered with the tag of “best player never to have won a major”, will immediately spring to mind and is reasonable value at 25 to 1, but I prefer his compatriot Jose-Maria Olazabal, terrific value at 40.

With the obvious exception of Woods, few if anyone in this week’s field know and like the Augusta National lay-out as well as the Spaniard. He has a couple of green jackets back home in Fuenterrabia, picked up in 1994 and 1999, and his consistency is underlined by seven top ten finishes, as well as seventh the week before that in the Players Championship. Olazabal, however, wasn’t talking up his chances.

“My game is good and solid and I think I have a chance of getting into the top ten,” he said. “The weather is nice and warm as it was in 1994 and 99 and that suits me but there is only problem and that’s my long putting. I’m happy enough from two metres but I need to be better from anything outside three metres. The course is very tough and not easy for many people. I may not be considered a long hitter but I’m satisfied I’m long enough to do well here again.”

Woods, and to a lesser extent Mickelson, are largely responsible for the constant tinkering of recent years with the Augusta course. “Tigerproofing” has actually become a word in the golfing lexicon but in truth instead of making it more difficult for the defending champion it seems to many that the alterations have actually played in this hands. True, he professes that he doesn’t like the latest changes very much, but Tiger doesn’t have to like a hole to conquer it.

“I certainly agree that the changes have narrowed up the field a little bit,” he said. “Some of the short hitters are definitely going to struggle. A concerted effort has been made to make driving part of the game. There was a time when you get some angles to some of the pins and now those angles have been taken away from you. It looks like being a dry course and that way, it’s always more difficult because the greens are not receptive when they get baked out.”

Woods, however, is operating under a huge cloud this week because by all accounts his father Earl is at death’s door. In comparison, Mickelson has no troubles that we know of and has arrived here on the back of that incredible 13-shot victory in the BellSouth at the weekend. When “Lefty” is on his game, not even Woods can live with him, a point he made very well when claiming his second “major” in last August’s PGA Championship. His Masters breakthrough came two years ago and he also has nine top-ten finishes and five among the leading five to his credit.

Still, Phil is something of an eccentric, the latest example coming in the BellSouth when he replaced his sand wedge with a second driver in the belief that it would enable him to fade and draw the ball off the tee. He intends to do the same this week.

“I have an L-wedge for the shots around the greens,” he argued last night. “I’ve played a lot of practice rounds with the sand wedge and never needed it. And I have a gap wedge in the bag as well. There are holes like the 7th, and the 10th and 13th as well, where I came up with the two-driver concept. I can hit a little controlled cut on the holes where distance isn’t a big factor, like 7 and 10, and I can use that draw driver and get a little extra pop on some holes.”

Retief Goosen and Ernie Els are next in line in the betting order with Singh at 14s and each has an obvious chance.

As for the Irish, it’s a case of more hope than confidence. Padraig Harrington’s best finish here was fifth in 2002 and doubtless he would settle for that at this remove. He and Darren Clarke are at 40 to 1 with Paul McGinley on offer at 150 to 1. Amateur Brian McElhinney is quoted at 750 to 1.

It’s perfectly reasonable that Woods and Mickelson should be favourites for the first big tournament of 2006 but Olazabal is just one of several Augusta naturals who might have something to say about that by the close of play on Sunday evening!