Stars aligning as Munster defying the odds again

So much has changed since Munster set out on their inaugural fixture in this season’s Champions Cup campaign that it’s difficult to grasp that they now sit just 80 minutes away from an appearance in the semi-final stage of the tournament.

Stars aligning as Munster defying the odds again

It’s fair to say, leaving Cork on that fateful weekend back in October, that not too many gave Munster much of a chance of turning over the reigning French Top 14 champions Racing 92 as the plane left the ground in Cork Airport.

Much of the talk on the flight was focused on the disappointing 25-14 defeat to Leinster at the Aviva Stadium the previous weekend and given the quality Racing had available to them, most feared the worst.

Not many on board envisaged Munster emerging from a tough pool containing Racing, an ever improving Glasgow Warriors side and traditional European rivals Leicester Tigers, who had done the double over Munster at the pool stage the previous season.

Little did we appreciate at that stage that when we would reassemble for the return flight, not only would the game be postponed, but Munster rugby would return home without one of its most famous and decorated sons.

So much changed that day outside the Stade Yves Du Manoir when a group of travelling Munster supporters gathered outside the main entrance to the stadium, lit their candles and sang their songs in tribute to the shock passing of head coach Anthony Foley.

By the time Glasgow arrived in Limerick a week later, a wave of tidal emotion had enveloped the province and Gregor Townsend’s men didn’t stand a chance.

Munster have since regrouped in spectacular fashion, as if driven on by a higher power, and now stand on the verge of a European semi-final, possibly in Dublin.

Anything could happen. Incredibly since that postponed fixture in Paris, five new Munster players have been capped for Ireland and, all of a sudden, there appears to be a depth of talent not witnessed since the halcyon days of the noughties.

Niall Scannell, John Ryan, Andrew Conway, Billy Holland, and Jack O’Donoghue have all been playing well enough to attract the attention of Joe Schmidt and the national coach has rewarded them in kind. But for injury, Darran Sweetnam could well have been added to that list.

That adds hugely to the feelgood factor in the dressing room. Peter O Mahony’s tour de force, after his late call up to start against England, serves to add further to the positive feeling and Munster need to capitalise on that when Toulouse arrive on Saturday.

A bit like Munster heading into this season’s tournament, Toulouse were well down the pecking order when it came to identifying potential winners and, despite making the last eight, they haven’t done much to dissuade that argument.

Currently sitting 9th in the Top 14, there is a real danger that they will miss out on the French championship playoffs for the first time in over 40 years.

As a result, it is difficult to assess where their priorities lie but, of all the French clubs, we know that Stade Toulousain still retain a special relationship with European rugby and will travel to Limerick intent on victory.

When you look at their squad, they still retain so many high-profile figures but, tellingly, only supplied three regular starters for France in this season’s Six Nations championship, loose head prop Cyril Baille, second row Yoann Maestri and centre Gael Fickou while wing Yoann Huget was only selected to do a specific job against Ireland.

Once the backbone of the national team, Toulouse are struggling to keep pace with the likes of Clermont Auvergne, Toulon and others despite an annual budget in excess of €35m.

Europe however presents their new coaching ticket of former stars Ugo Mola and William Servat with the opportunity to make a statement and that, along with their abject 47-23 capitulation at this stage in Thomond Park three years ago, will serve to focus the mind. They cannot afford a repeat of that performance.

Munster have returned to the point where they will field an all Irish International pack on Saturday with a back row of CJ Stander, Peter O Mahony and Tommy O’Donnell all playing well and hungry to impress for a variety of reasons.

The sheer bulk and physicality offered by Jean Kleyn against the likely Toulouse second row pairing of Maestri and Richie Grey will be missed but the industry, workrate and technical ability delivered by Holland and Donnacha Ryan will more than make up for the disparity in the physical stakes.

The news earlier in the week of Ryan’s likely departure to Racing 92 could not have been worse timed and is an unnecessary distraction as is the shocking prospect of losing Rassie Erasmus.

Ryan is integral to everything Munster have achieved this season and is still crucial to what Ireland hope to achieve over the next two seasons.

He has missed significant game time over the last few seasons and as a consequence has a number of good seasons ahead of him still. Ireland need him in the mix keeping the pressure on Devin Toner, Iain Henderson and Ultan Dillane.

Bottom line here is that his quality needs to be recognised. The IRFU need to pay him what he is worth as he proved so decisively against England. As for Erasmus, losing him before he has barely warmed the seat would be a disaster.

Bottom line here is that his quality needs to be recognised. The IRFU need to pay him what he is worth as he proved so decisively against England. As for Erasmus, losing him before he has barely warmed the seat would be a disaster.

Behind the scrum, unless Sweetnam starts, Rory Scannell and Tyler Bleyendaal will be the only non international’s in the Munster line up but, by delivering on days such as this, their time will come.

While Conor Murray’s loss would affect any side, Erasmus has instilled such confidence in Duncan Williams, who is having an excellent season, that Munster should still be able to cope.

Leinster’s clash with Wasps could turn out to be the tie of the quarter-finals. Five points clear at the top of the Aviva Premiership, Wasps face the current Guinness PRO12 leaders in a game set to light up the Aviva Stadium.

The PRO12 had no quarter-final representation last season, suggesting that the greater finances behind the Anglo-French clubs was set to dominate the tournament for some time to come. Thankfully that hasn’t come to pass and the PRO12 boasts three representatives in this weekend’s knockout phase with a strong possibility that two of those will still be left standing by Sunday evening.

Thankfully that hasn’t come to pass and the PRO12 boasts three representatives in this weekend’s knockout phase with a strong possibility that two of those will still be left standing by Sunday evening.

Connacht showed Leinster the way in their two pool encounters against Wasps this season winning one, albeit in controversial circumstances, and running them close in Coventry. With four of the English side in Joe Launchbury, James Haskell, Nathan Hughes, and Elliot Daly back at the scene of their recent capitulation to Ireland, they will be in the perfect position to outline exactly the intensity levels Leinster bring into this contest.

With four of the English side in Joe Launchbury, James Haskell, Nathan Hughes, and Elliot Daly back at the scene of their recent capitulation to Ireland, they will be in the perfect position to outline exactly the intensity levels Leinster bring into this contest.

While Jamie Heaslip and Rob Kearney will be a loss, the fact that both Joey Carbery and Jack Conan have enjoyed more regular game time in Leinster colours recently may compensate for that. Stuart Lancaster is a big admirer of the impact Carbery makes from full-back, both as a second receiver and playmaker, and that may well fit in better to the way Leinster are playing at present. That said they will have to tidy up in defence, especially off turnovers, as Wasps will expose them with

Stuart Lancaster is a big admirer of the impact Carbery makes from full-back, both as a second receiver and playmaker, and that may well fit in better to the way Leinster are playing at present.

That said they will have to tidy up in defence, especially off turnovers, as Wasps will expose them with even greater ruthlessness that Cardiff managed last Friday night.

Leinster need only look back to their disastrous pool encounters against Wasps last season - defeated 51-10 in their final game away and 84-16 on aggregate over the two matches - to appreciate the challenge ahead of them but they are unrecognisable in so many ways to the side that barely fired a shot in last season’s tournament.

The biggest challenge facing Leinster and, to a lesser degree Munster, this weekend is their collective lack of game time together due to the demands of the Six Nations. If they can overcome that, then two home wins are on the cards.

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