Joe Schmidt will have Ian Keatley well versed for opener in Rome
With that crucial box ticked, Joe Schmidt prioritised strengthening his new midfield combination and improving the efficiency of Ireland’s scrum.
Sexton’s issues with concussion changed that focus somewhat and then the problem was compounded when Murray sustained a neck injury after running into one of his own players.
At least Murray has recovered to start today but Ian Madigan’s less-than-assured outing against England Saxons in Cork last week created doubt at a time when Schmidt craved certainty.
“Grab the jersey and convince me that you are the man for the job,” would have been Schmidt’s message to the Leinster man ahead of that game. But what transpired created more questions than answers for the coach.
Schmidt has always selected on gut instinct and Ian Keatley’s superior tactical kicking game allied to his more fluid relationship and understanding with Murray tipped the scales in his favour.
Madigan provides more spark in attack but can be difficult to play outside at times as he tends to take first option on the ball. That has cost him this weekend.
The one thing that will help Keatley on his Six Nations debut is the clarity Schmidt brings to proceedings. The new man will be given a very clear set of parameters ahead of this game. Stick to those, and he will be fine. Either way, it appears a holding position before the return of Sexton.
New Zealand-born Kelly Haimona is the latest in a long line of out-halfs since the retirement of Diego Domingues 12 years ago to be charged with the responsibility of bringing order to Italy’s play from half-back. In contrast to his diminutive predecessor, Luciano Orquera, Haimona cuts an imposing figure at 16½ stone and offers a more reassuring defensive presence in a key area.
Alongside him, scrum-half, Edoardo Gori has come on in leaps and bounds and their form means the distinct advantage Ireland were expected to enjoy in the sector is not as clearcut. To compensate for that, the Irish forwards need to be on top of their game but injuries in the back row may compromise that.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to win games when your back row is outplayed. Think back to Munster’s comprehensive defeat to Saracens at Allianz Park, and the foundation for Sarries’ win can be traced to the dominance enjoyed, with and without the ball, by Kelly Brown, Billy Vunipola and Jacques Burger.
Every side coming into this championship has had to deal with injury and by comparison, Ireland have got off lightly. That said, Ireland’s back row resources has been severely depleted with the unavailability of Jamie Heaslip, Chris Henry, Rhys Ruddock and Robin Copeland.
The big concern I have is that Jordi Murphy has started very few games this season due to injury while Sean O’Brien is nowhere near match-fit for a clash of this magnitude. But it has become a case of needs must for Schmidt. At least Tommy O’Donnell and Ian Henderson offer decent cover off the bench and are guaranteed pitch-time.
It means Ireland are compromised in a key area where Italy have impressive performances. Sergio Parisse and Alessandro Zanni are perennial contenders for the team of the championship and Italy will fancy their chances of competing on an equal footing at the breakdown. They will also take solace from the fact that their set-piece was excellent against Argentina and South Africa last November — a great starting point when it comes to controlling the contact area. They are sure to chase Ireland in the scrum, where Mike Ross is another coming into this contest with little rugby behind him.
Heaslip’s experience and presence will be sorely missed and will also reduce Ireland’s line out options. For Murray and Keatley to control this game effectively, they will need to be on the front foot. The fact that Ireland’s efficiency levels at the breakdown and scrum will be severely tested won’t help their cause. O’Brien has what it takes to make an impact but 50 minutes is all that can be expected of him. That will heap more pressure on Peter O’Mahony and Murphy, and as a consequence, Ireland need to play this game in the right areas of the field. Italy struggle to score tries and if Ireland manage to dominate territorially, then they should be fine.
But, as some of this squad found out on their last two visits to Rome, it will be no walkover.
Every side craves stability at full back and Ireland have that in Rob Kearney. As a forward, knowing you have a colossus under the high ball patrolling the back field offers massive confidence. The fact that Kearney is flanked by two players in Tommy Bowe and Simon Zebo who have spent sufficient game time in the same role offers additional comfort. All three are rock solid under the aerial bombardment that most teams launch in terms of achieving territory or ‘contestables’ in order to regain possession in the opposition 22. Kearney is not only dominant in the air but was outstanding in November in turning defence into attack with his ability to carry the ball back and beat the first defender. Not only does that force the opposition half-backs to rethink their kicking strategy but it reduces their options significantly.
If they resort to kicking the ball off the field, then they are playing to Ireland’s excellent line-out and surrendering possession. Ireland build so much of their phase play off lineouts that teams are now very conscious of reducing the number of feeds Ireland receive over 80 minutes. That heaps greater pressure on the opposition kickers.
It is in attack, however, where Ireland’s pacey back three excel and enjoy a distinct advantage over the likes of Luke McLean, Andrea Masi and Leonardo Sarto. Bowe is brilliant at coming in off his wing, offering a second wave of attack. Zebo needs to follow that lead and work harder off the ball, something he has worked on to good effect in recent outings.
The problem at the moment is Ireland don’t look to offload and capitalise on the promising support lines taken up by Bowe in particular. Zebo was pilloried in November for attempting an offload against Australia that went awry and led to a breakaway try by Nick Phipps. He was hardly responsible for the succession of missed tackles that facilitated the score, however.
I hope his natural attacking instincts haven’t been curbed as a result of that incident and it’s in Ireland’s best interest to get Bowe, Kearney and Zebo on the ball as often as possible. If Ireland get dragged into the slow, stop start, slugfest favoured by the hosts, then the game will become a grind and take longer to expose an Italian defensive structure that loses its shape after a few phases.
Ireland must seek to control the tempo of this game and put Italy’s back three on the back foot from the off. Create opportunities for Bowe and Zebo, and they will deliver. Schmidt knows that and will plan accordingly.
