Pace and away goals may decide both ties.
Bayern Munich and Atletico both enjoyed the lion’s share of the ball in the first leg — 64% for Bayern and 62% for Atletico according to the official statistics — and neither team was able to turn that into goals. Pep Guardiola’s men were a little fortunate just to lose 1-0. Diego Simeone’s side were unable to take advantage when Chelsea lost Petr Cech to injury and the match turned into a war of attrition that neither side looked like winning.
Real Madrid have an appalling record to overcome. For some reason they seem to freeze on German soil, their quarter-final against Borussia Dortmund being a typical example. True they were missing Cristiano Ronaldo and they also missed a penalty, but they only just escaped the match going to extra time.
So both ties could well hinge on the away goals rule.
Madrid need one to give them some breathing space while an away goal for Atletico would put them in the driving seat.
They have failed to score on their travels four times this season, but on two of those occasions they were without Thibaut Courtois, and his presence in goal gives them much more security going forward.
On the face of it there could hardly be a greater contrast in styles between these two matches but the same factor may well prove decisive in both. Pace.
Madrid’s blinding speed on the counter made the difference in the Bernabeu. Carlo Ancelotti’s big regret was that two other similar chances went begging. Both Guardiola’s selection and his tactics were called into question.
Of the two Marios at his disposal it seemed odd that he opted for Mandzukic rather than Götze. Both Pepe and Sergio Ramos are strong in the air and might have been more troubled by Götze’s speed and directness. Using Philipp Lahm in his defensive midfield role rather than to mark Ronaldo also left Bayern exposed at the back.
Early on the Germans had almost 80% of possession, but with no end product. Matthias Sammer, their director of sport, commented: “I don’t think there ever was another Bayern team that dominated at the Bernabeu the way we did. But the fact is we controlled possession, not the result.”
Franz Beckenbauer added: “We can’t win with possession if the opponent creates chances.”
You can sense a growing frustration with Guardiola’s approach, even though Bayern are closing in on a second consecutive treble. Earlier on in the season they were blitzing teams, lately the manager appears to have reverted to the ‘tiki taka’ that eventually turned Barcelona into a one-dimensional side.
But when Guardiola took over at Barcelona, what made tiki taka so devastating was not their endless passing but relentless pressing. Opponents were forced into errors and they broke rapidly when they won the ball back. Bayern have the players to do that — not just Götze but Franck Ribery, Arjen Robben and David Alaba — and would have scored in the first leg but for a sensational block by Xabi Alonso.
Tomorrow night’s match at Stamford Bridge could well be another dour encounter. But as with tiki taka so with catenaccio — pace is the key. Neither Chelsea nor Atletico really play that defensively — true catenaccio has an extra man at the back to lock the door (catenaccio is Italian for a bolt). What they both have is the ability to soak up pressure, keep their shape — and then break suddenly from midfield.
Chelsea, like Bayern, have a weapon that they were unable to use in the first leg. Without Samuel Eto’o and Eden Hazard they lacked a real goal threat on the break.
But they also have a weakness at the back. When two opposing teams can break at pace the deciding factor can be the goalkeeper’s reactions and speed off his line, or sometimes outside the penalty area. Mark Schwarzer is an able deputy for Cech but he is also 20 years older than his opposite number. Chelsea will be vulnerable, especially if Atletico secure that away goal.
