Arvika going the right way
The National is a race in which every jockey wants to ride and I’d just love to be heading out with 39 other lads this afternoon. It’s not to be, so I will have to be content with joining many millions watching on television. Anyway, here are my thoughts on how it might pan out.
To my way of thinking the best handicapped horse in the race is Tidal Bay, even if he has to carry top weight. He’s well handicapped, because the handicapper decided that’s the way it should be.
But even if Tidal Bay is well handicapped it will make no difference, should he conclude it is not for him.
And that would be my main worry. He ran in the National before and didn’t seem to enjoy the experience.
Long Run is a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner and scored at Kelso last time. But I believe he’s on the wane and don’t fancy him.
Nor do I fancy Triolo d’Alene. Given the way this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup panned out, he should have been right in the mix. The fact he finished a poor tenth speaks for itself.
Likewise, I’m also against Teaforthree. I know he was third in the National a year ago, but was only eighth in last month’s Gold Cup and should have done a lot better.
Rocky Creek, I know him well and second to The Giant Bolster at Cheltenham in January, has a big chance.
He’s a fine horse and one I have always thought of as a live National candidate. They tried to make him into a Grade 1 horse, but he was never going to be that. Rocky, however, jumps and stays and has a real life.
It would, of course, be great to see my father’s Colbert Station winning, but he’s been disappointing of late and has to come back to the form he showed in the Troytown at Navan to have a chance.
I’m sure I would have ridden Prince de Beauchene, if fit, and am very disappointed to be missing out on him.
He is improving and his whole campaign has been geared towards this day, having missed out on the race for the last two years.
Monbeg Dude has a nice weight, 10-9, but I’m inclined to discount him, on the basis his jumping isn’t good enough.
I give David Pipe’s The Package a great shout, if this has been the plan all along. He ran a cracker at Cheltenham when third to Holywell.
If that Cheltenham contest was merely a prep for this that would be mighty encouraging. If he was wired to the moon for Cheltenham then I wouldn’t have him on my mind at all.
I thought Big Shu stripped big in the parade ring at Cheltenham and wouldn’t be surprised should he run a big race. Tidal Bay, if he takes to the place, has to be on the short list and I would add The Package and Prince de Beauchene as well, in a wide open race, in which yet another screamer for the bookmakers is far from a remote possibility.
I expect a major effort from Willie Mullins’ Thousand Stars in the three-mile plus Grade 1 hurdle. I rode him over an inadequate two and a quarter at Leopardstown last time, when Sailors Warn was too quick for us in the closing stages.
I should probably have made more use of Thousand Stars, but, in any case, he has shown a distinct liking for Aintree in the past and should at least go close, especially with More Of That having to miss the race.
Willie sends a powerful team to Fairyhouse tomorrow and it won’t be overly easy having to look on. He runs Arvika Ligeonniere, Twinlight and Turban in the first, a Grade 2 over fences, and I would have had no hesitation going with the first named.
Arvika disappointed in the two-mile Champion Chase at Cheltenham, after making a bad mistake at the last ditch. We were going too fast in front and back right-handed, and on heavy ground, he is likely to be far more comfortable.
Willie runs both Dogora and Abbey Lane in a handicap chase and choosing between them would not have been easy. You wouldn’t say they are tossed in at the weights, but are smart sorts, when on song, and neither would be a surprise winner.
Willie runs four in the mares’ novice hurdle and I favour his two juveniles, Adriana Des Mottes and Florishwells d’Ete.
Adriana is crying out for this two and a half miles, but I’d imagine that Florishwells d’Ete will come on plenty for her win at Gowran Park.
It is full steam ahead for Willie in a Grade 2 hurdle, with three runners, Upazo, Urano and Renneti. Deciding which one to ride would have been easy and I’d have gone with Renneti.
He’s a fair sort, who had to miss Cheltenham because he wasn’t quite right. But I gather they are more than happy with him now and his form is rock solid.
Willie has three as well in another Grade 2 hurdle, City Slicker, Valseur Lido and Wicklow Brave. City Slicker has to go right-handed, so at least that criteria is met.
Wicklow Brave and Valseur Lido were sixth and tenth respectively behind Vautour at Cheltenham and there isn’t a huge amount between them on that running.
Willie’s Measureofmydreams, an out-and-out galloper and three-mile chaser in the making, is obviously worth noting in the bumper.
