Total discipline and selective betting essential at Cheltenham
By its very nature Cheltenham is a hard place to make a profit, but this year’s meeting shapes like a minefield and total discipline and very selective betting are going to be essential requirements.
Let’s begin with three theoretical certainties and none of them involve a horse at all.
Firstly, you would have to think that only an injury can prevent Ruby Walsh from emerging as the leading rider at the meeting.
He has far and away the strongest hand of any jockey and, by my reckoning, could ride as many as nine favourites. And that’s without taking any of the handicaps into consideration.
We can be sure it will be far from smooth sailing, it rarely is at Cheltenham, but even a modest week by Walsh’s high standards could still see him comfortably in the lead at the end. He was best priced this week at 4-7.
If we think Walsh is going to be the leading rider then, by extension, you have to fancy Willie Mullins (2-5) to be leading trainer.
He trains all of Walsh’s nine possibilities and has a lot more ammunition to fire as well. Mullins also has a seriously strong hand in the bumper. On top of that, unlike Walsh, injury is not a possibility.
And then there is the silliness of what has come to be known as the Prestbury Cup.
This has to do with who will have the most winners, Britain or Ireland.
Last year was the first occasion Ireland had more and it will be a miracle if that is repeated. GB to come out on top is 1-3.
Okay then, lump those short ones together and you end up with odds of just under 2-1.
All of that, however, will be a mere sideshow to the real business and that is finding a winner. I suspect, and really hope to be proved utterly wrong, that it may well prove difficult - to say the least of it.
I’d say most of the Irish will be swinging into action with Vautour in the first race on Tuesday, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He may well set the tone for the rest of the week.
If he wins then it could easily develop into a bonanza, because you can be confident Vautour is right at the top of the pecking order when it comes to the Willie Mullins novice hurdlers.
Should he score then there will be plenty willing to put the head down and go with the likes of Faugheen and Briar Hill. If Vautour is beaten then that will put many of the Irish on the back foot and hesitant when it comes to the others.
The psychology involved in this game is almost as important as the depth of the pockets.
Looking at the Supreme Novices’, you would have to think that Paul Nicholls’ Irving and Mullins’ other runner, Wicklow Brave, are the dangers.
But they seem like two speed horses to my way of thinking and that will not be lost on Ruby Walsh.
He’s as cute as fox and I will be astonished should he not start to gradually wind things up from the top of the hill aboard Vautour.
As you gaze through the various races there are just so many puzzles to be sorted.
The Champion Hurdle is a tough race to solve and the Gold Cup is also a long way from being cut and dried.
Will the real Quevega arrive one more time in the Mares’ Hurdle, and what price can we get Willie Mullins to win the bumper, with three potentially outstanding horses with which to challenge in Killultagh Vic, Shaneshill and Black Hercules?
The confidence behind Mullins’ Briar Hill, in the Albert Bartlett, is almost contagious, and this about a horse who doesn’t half run lazily
And then you have the battle between Big Buck’s and Annie Power, which is guaranteed to light up the dullest day of the week at the festival, Thursday.
I see this as one of the most open Cheltenham’s in memory and we must not allow emotion to rule the head.
If we can manage a profit it will be a fair performance and don’t forget that a 2-1 winner at Gowran Park this afternoon will pay exactly the same as at Cheltenham.
, but one must refer to Strategic Heights, who is in the care of first-year trainer Johnny Feane.
After he won a handicap at Dundalk on February 14, by two and three quarter lengths, the handicapper raised him by 19lbs.
One or two of the geniuses that inhabit the press-room gave the handicapper a bit of stick and there was no real drawing back from their obviously entrenched positions when he went on to win a Rated Race next time, back at Dundalk.
This performance was essentially dismissed on the basis he was meeting horses that were out of form.
So, onto Dundalk last Friday night week and Strategic Heights was in handicap company again and racing off mark that was now 22lbs higher compared to February 14.
And, oh horror of horrors, at least for the handicapper’s critics, not for some more of us mind you, didn’t he go and win again.
The handicapper could hardly have been more right and earlier in the week gave Strategic Heights another 5lbs for his trouble.
The moral of the story is that journalists are journalists and handicappers are handicapper, and this really was a case of horses for courses!
