Three’s a dream but just one’ll do nicely
With Spain and Italy still to come, there is a popular view that tomorrow’s game in Poznan is a must-win for both Ireland and Croatia if either side is to harbour any kind of realistic ambition of confounding the odds to qualify for the quarter-finals of Euro 2012.
I disagree. At the risk of sounding like Il Trap himself, I regard the match as, first and foremost, a must-not-lose for Ireland.
If the Irish do emerge out of tomorrow night’s game with three points, I would regard it as a massive bonus, a dream start to the Euros.
The worst alternative, by contrast, would belong to the realm of nightmare. Lose tomorrow and, with the Spanish lying in wait, Ireland — barring an improbable recovery and result against the world and European champions — would already be eyeing an exit from Euro 2012 after just day one.
In short, the benefits of a win against Croatia, considerable though they would be, are outweighed in potential significance by the damage which would be inflicted by a defeat.
Which is why the middle way, in the form of a draw, would be an acceptable result — in effect, it would mean that Ireland’s interest in the tournament would be guaranteed at least until the final qualifier against Italy on Monday week, making that game against the Azzurri a potential winner-takes-second-place affair.
Indeed, given the calamities which have befallen the Italian camp — and the most un-Italian defensive chaos which allowed Russia to put three past them in their final warm-up game — the pity is Trapattoni is not coming up against his home country first.
At this moment, Croatia seem a tougher prospect, even though the loss of Ivica Olic is a serious blow. But we know that in Luka Modric they still have a will-o’-the-wisp kind of playmaker who can single-handedly dictate the course of a game, as well as enough firepower in reserve to ensure Shay Given and the Irish defence are kept busy, even in the absence of Olic.
We can also expect that the Croatians will, like so many teams Ireland face, be technically superior and command possession of the ball for long spells. But that, in itself, is not what will prove decisive so long as Ireland remain as disciplined, committed and alert to danger as they have been on many occasions since Trapattoni took charge. If Ireland stick to the manager’s job spec, that traditional tournament opening scoreline — 0-0 — would seem a good bet.
If they don’t do their jobs well, and concede a goal, then they will simply have to do their jobs even better to get back to parity. In chasing the game, Ireland would have to adopt an altogether more attacking posture than is usually the case under Trapattoni, with a huge onus on Damien Duff and Aiden McGeady on the flanks, and Robbie Keane and Kevin Doyle up front, to provide the combination of creativity and aggression which would be required to unhinge the Croatian defence.
In truth, of course, while it’s not so hard to discern the broad outlines of the game in advance, any number of unforeseen events could determine the outcome. Don’t doubt that Lady Luck will have her say, for good or ill.
The debates about tactics and personnel have raged for a long time before this game and will rage again, perhaps with renewed intensity, when it’s over. But, right now, on the eve of the biggest day in Irish football for 10 years and as a nation holds its breath again, I feel it’s only right to let my inner fan off the leash and say I can only wish the Boys in Green every possible good fortune in Poznan tomorrow.
They deserve it, the fans crave it and the country needs it. And, however Ireland achieve it, tomorrow is all about getting a result to keep the dream alive.
Three points? Oh, that would be lovely. But just the one will do nicely.
