Jackson decision is a massive gamble
1 The battle of the front rows
One of the big surprises to emerge from Edinburgh’s defining defeat of Toulouse in the quarter-final at Murrayfield was the manner in which they dealt with the famed Toulousain front row of Jean-Baptiste Poux, William Servat and Census Johnston. Edinburgh’s all-Scottish front row of Allan Jacobsen, Ross Ford and Geoff Cross had a difficult time of it in the Six Nations, especially against Ireland at the Aviva Stadium. So to see that trio not only survive but, ultimately, dominate Toulouse offered Edinburgh a massive boost on the day.
Michael Bradley will be fully aware of the key role played by Ulster’s John Afoa in their march through Europe this season and will be thrilled that the New Zealand World Cup winner is suspended for today’s semi-final. It means Edinburgh will now seek to get a vital edge in the important battle of the scrum which, in turn, offers a distinct advantage to their very impressive back row. Afoa’s suspension has had Ulster coach Brian McLaughlin in a tizzy for the last two weeks as he first tried Tom Court at tight head against Connacht (with about as much success as Court enjoyed at Twickenham) before introducing Declan Fitzpatrick, just back from a long injury lay-off, against Leinster last weekend with slightly more success. McLaughlin had no choice but to leave Court at loose head otherwise he risked de-powering both sides of the scrum. The question now is whether or not Fitzpatrick is up to the task of anchoring the Ulster scrum at tight head after his recent injury problems.
2 Back row supremacy
Edinburgh’s all-action off-loading game is facilitated by a well balanced and highly under-rated back row trio of Scottish internationals David Denton and Ross Rennie, complemented by experienced Fijian No 8 Netani Talei, who has been sensational this season. While the Edinburgh break away unit like to run about and support the ball carrier, their Ulster counterparts tend to be more physical, especially in the contact area where they proved very effective against Munster. The loss of Chris Henry is a big blow and Willie Faloon will have his work cut out to match Henry’s effectiveness at the breakdown. Pedrie Wannenburg is a workhorse while Stephen Ferris is the spiritual leader of this Ulster outfit.
Ulster prevailed in the battle of Thomond Park because their back row dominated at the breakdown, forcing penalties from Munster for not releasing which Ruan Pienaar was only too happy to convert. Ferris, who played in that quarter-final on one leg, will have benefited from having an additional two weeks — he has not played since that Munster game — and if anything his influence could be even more pronounced on this occasion. Denton, No 8 for Scotland but directly opposite Ferris on the blind side on this occasion, will relish the physical challenge of taking on the Ulster man while Rennie is an out and No 7 who adds greatly to the fluidity of the Edinburgh game should they manage to generate quick ball. Therein lays the challenge for the visitors: this Ulster unit have managed to boss proceedings against most opposition this season. I have been very impressed with Talei in particular and the Gunners back row have the capacity to carry the game to Ulster which will make this a much tighter affair than generally expected.
3 Half-back leadership
There was speculation early this week that Ireland U20 out half Paddy Jackson would be a surprise inclusion in the Ulster side, which says something about the form of Ian Humphreys coming into this game. In Thomond Park, despite Ulster’s dominance in the opening half, Humphreys had a poor game. His form has now cost him his place and McLaughlin has taken a massive gamble in starting Jackson in a game of this magnitude. It will help him that he will not have the place kicking duties but this will be a massive test of the young man’s temperament. He is certainly a player for the future but he’ll rely heavily on Pienaar inside him and Paddy Wallace outside to get him through the opening half.
The challenge facing Michael Bradley is that Greig Laidlaw is a scrum-half by trade but Phil Godman has failed to live up to his early promise which necessitated a change of role for Laidlaw. He is now learning the rudiments of out-half play in the challenging environment of the Heineken Cup. When promoted to the pivotal No 10 role for Scotland in the Six Nations, he looked unsure of himself and defensively vulnerable . It was a surprise to me that Toulouse didn’t attempt to expose his defensive vulnerability more and I have no doubt that Ulster will test him early and often with Stephen Ferris earmarked to run at him from the off.
Inside Laidlaw, 2009 Lion Mike Blair seems to play much better for Edinburgh than he does for Scotland and is an experienced and dangerous runner. He will seek to up the tempo for the visitors from free kicks and penalties and his pace will create issues for the Ulster back row and demand their attention.
Pienaar is the vital cog in the Ulster half-back machine and he has frequently switched from scrum-half to close out games for Ulster from the outhalf position in the final quarter of the big contests. His place kicking was central to Ulster’s win in Limerick and the former Springbok has become increasingly influential in the Ulster cause this season. The big question today is which outhalf will run the show with greater conviction and authority. Both are suspect and will require support and protection from their back row and half-back partners.
