Which coach will rue his selection gambles?
When selecting a side to play at this level of competition, one must always assume that the coaches who work with the players on a daily basis have a better insight and a sharper appreciation of who is in form and pushing all the right buttons in training.
On the surface, both management teams have taken a bit of a gamble. The inclusion of Mike Sherry at Munster hooker ahead of the more experienced Damien Varley is not a huge surprise to me as, but for injury, I think Sherry would be a regular in the side by now. When introduced off the bench against Leinster last weekend his impact was immediate.
The surprise for me in Tony McGahan’s selection is the omission of Donncha O’Callaghan, in effect for Tommy O’Donnell. Once passed fit, Donnacha Ryan was always going to start but the assumption was it would be in the back row with the same back five that featured in the comprehensive defeat of Northampton last time out, retained intact. O’Donnell, in his first Heineken Cup start will play open side with Peter O’Mahony reverting to the blind side. He has impressed when introduced off the bench but this is a big step up.
Ulster persist with Ruan Pienaar and Ian Humphreys at half back but many experienced observers up north retain doubts over Humphreys’ defence and his ability to control a game. Paul Marshall has been superb all season at scrum-half and in my opinion Pienaar offers more from out-half. While Stephen Ferris is named to start, his participation will be in doubt right up to kick off.
2 THE BREAKDOWN
Munster were blown away by Leinster at the breakdown Saturday night in Limerick and a repeat performance against Ulster will cost them a semi-final slot.
Working off a dominant set piece certainly helped the Leinster back row, for whom Shane Jennings excelled. Ulster are a big, physical side who commit numbers to the ruck and maul, so Munster will have to be ready for a dogfight there. Ferris will be a huge loss to Ulster in this key sector if he fails to last the pace as he is the man who sets the standard for them.
Reflecting on his side’s biggest defeat in Europe, Northampton coach Jim Mallinder said this week that Munster simply blew them away at the breakdown in Milton Keynes and succeeded in slowing down their ball, thus negating the threat they posed behind the scrum. Munster have selected a back row combination to do just that but O’Donnell faces a big challenge from the powerful Ulster trio.
The one question mark hanging over the Ulster breakaway unit is, they don’t have an out-and-out open side; Chris Henry is more at home at No 8. That may well have influenced the thought process of McGahan and Anthony Foley in picking O’Donnell from the start with David Wallace available to finish the job off the bench. The biggest factor in who comes out on top in this key area rests on the broad shoulders of Ferris. All of Ulster will pray that he starts but even if he does, he cannot be 100% fit after sustaining significant ankle ligament damage only eight days ago. That gives Munster an edge.
3 THE THOMOND FACTOR
Ulster’s Springbok second row Johann Muller said during the week that his side know exactly what to expect from Munster given that they play them twice a season in the RaboDirect Pro12.
But Munster are nearly always under-strength for those encounters due to international commitments. As a result, we haven’t seen the two sides go hammer and tongs at each other with a full compliment on display for some time now. That may catch Ulster, as many teams have been surprised at the level of physicality that Munster carry into the big Heineken Cup games — just ask Northampton.
The Munster public have got right behind the team this season, recognising that new leaders are emerging in Conor Murray and Peter O’Mahony while Simon Zebo has become a crowd favourite. With two more academy graduates starting a Heineken Cup game for the first time in Sherry and O’Donnell, the Thomond faithful will recognise the necessity to get behind the new kids right from the start.
Munster’s foundation has always been honesty and hard work and it is important that they set the ground rules in relation to those key indicators early. The return of Paul O’Connell, whose sheer presence alone is worth points to Munster, will also offer a timely boost. One word of caution, however. Ulster have taken up their full allocation of tickets which means that there will be over 6,000 highly vocal Ulster fans ready and willing to make their voices heard. The Red Army must respond in kind.
