Irish Examiner View: Wagner Group's activities give an idea of what Ukraine is facing

There was plenty of speculation after the Lukashenko settlement that the Russian president might eventually seek revenge on Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Head of Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin makes a video statement from an unknown location in the days before his death in a plane crash. Picture: Prigozhin Press Service via AP, File

US president Joe Biden’s comment on the events of recent days in Russia probably summarise most people’s views on developments there.

When asked about the reported death in a plane crash of Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of mercenary army the Wagner Group, Biden mentioned the Russian president by name, saying: “Little happens in Russia without the knowledge of Vladimir Putin.”

The reason for that pointed reference, of course, is that, in June, Prigozhin led an apparent rebellion against the Putin regime. That rebellion took the form of a long convoy of vehicles, carrying armed soldiers, which almost reached Moscow itself before Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko brokered a settlement between the two sides.

Several opponents and critics of Putin have died in mysterious circumstances in recent years, and there was plenty of speculation after the Lukashenko settlement that the Russian president might eventually seek revenge on Prigozhin. Tuesday’s events could therefore be described as shocking, but perhaps not surprising.

As Biden’s acid comment implies, Putin’s iron grip on all aspects of Russian life means many observers will believe he has knowledge of the latest development at the very least; that belief will not be weakened by the fact that Putin’s tribute to Prigozhin described him as “a person with a complicated fate, and he made serious mistakes in life”.

Recent reports suggested that the Wagner Group had seen its influence within Russia dwindle since the coup attempt, with desertions from its forces in Belarus as it turned its attention to operations in Africa, where it has had a presence for many years. The organisation has also been accused of a range of war crimes including murder, rape, and torture in its campaigns around the globe, Ukraine included.

Taken in conjunction with the violent death of its leader, that context offers an indication of the savagery that Ukraine has been facing for 18 months — and an endorsement of Ireland’s continuing support for that country.