Dingle, Barrs, crucial kickouts and the Goldilocks defensive system

The Kerry and Cork champions both have the football to dazzle; the tie will hinge on the gruelling work that paves the way for it.

As Dingle pore over the metrics from St Finbarr’s impressive march to the Munster decider, one statistic will flash like a warning light on a dark road: Their dominance on opposition kickout.

In their last five games, the tally stands at 49 opposition kickouts won for 39 shots to culminate in 5-34 (49). Possession, pressure and punishment. Boom.

The majority of their scores since the quarter-final victory over Castlehaven have come from this one source. For Dingle keeper, Gavin Curran, finding a way through that ferocious press and monstrous middle third will not only ensure a steady supply of ball for their talented inside line. It will choke off one of their Cork opponents’ main attacking platforms too.

The battle in the middle will be nothing short of ferocious. There is no softer word for it. Referee Chris Maguire was also in charge for St Finbarr’s quarter-final win over Clonmel, an afternoon thick with midfield wrestling and scrapping and breaking ball. What the Cork champions produced in their comprehensive semi-final win was a backlash to that lost edge. In Páirc Uí Chaoimh, they won 14 of 19 kickout breaks. That grit paved the way for the class that followed.

With the introduction of the 40-metre arc, the opposition’s kickout has become a valuable source of shots for smart teams. At the recent GAA Performance Analysis Community of Practice day, Johnny Bradley of the Games Intelligence Unit presented some of the data he has been tracking to monitor the new rules.

One of his graphics broke down each Sam Maguire teams’ source of shots across four areas: Opposition kickout, own kickout, slow attacks (over 30 seconds), turnovers and throw-ins. Only four sides did not have a double-digit return from the opposition kickout, Mayo, Derry, Louth and Tyrone. Time and again this year, teams have lost simply because they couldn't secure their own restart.

Recent Cork call-up Darragh Newman has enjoyed a fine season in goals for the Barrs and goes long with the majority of his kickouts. Dingle simply have to find a way to win a significant share of them. This numbers game is at the heart of kickout presses in the new rules. Can you commit enough bodies to make a goalkeeper go long while having enough out the field to outnumber the opposition on the breaks?

Padraig Corcoran has plenty of intellectual firepower in his backroom team. Five-time All-Ireland winner Tommy Griffin is joined by Aidan O’Shea, son of Kerry legend Jack, and Irish women’s basketball coach James Weldon.

Possession is nine-tenths of the law, but even the law has blind spots. Most recently, Maigh Cuilinn comprehensively bested the kickout war in the Connacht final yet found themselves on the wrong side of a two-point match. Remarkably, they won 14 of their own kickout for 15 shots (including a second shot after an effort dropped short) and only scored 0-2 from all of that.

There is little chance a team dominate possession in the same way and doesn’t win in Thurles on Sunday. These are two ruthless attacks. Supply means scores. At the same time, matchups will be critical. Where the unstoppable force will meet the immovable object will start in the middle, even if it won’t always play out there.

Brian Hayes’s hat-trick against Éire Óg earned glowing reviews. Rightly. Seventeen goals in a calendar year is astonishing. The beauty for the Barrs is that Hayes provides much more than green flags.

The 24-year-old is an awesome kickout target and a throw-in enforcer too. Hayes was a doubt going into the Cork semi-final and did not compete for the throw-ins that day but in the quarter-final, final and two Munster clashes, he has won four throw-ins resulting in a 0-5 return. St Finbarr’s conceded 0-1 from the ones that they lost.

Hayes will likely meet his marker from the first whistle on Sunday. AFL star Mark O’Connor won the opening throw-in against Mungret/St Pauls and has the athleticism to match the dual star. He can operate in midfield or closer to goal when the Hurler of the Year nominee wanders in. It has all the texture of a heavyweight bout.

The problem with matchups now is that Gaelic football is operating at such a level that allowing your defensive shape to be manipulated based on a handful of individuals can be perilous. Break it down to its fundamentals: a straight-up 15-on-15 means if one defender is beaten, a defence is carved open. Gradually, coaches began to encourage players to read the danger and cover across when it was merited. The relations that follow are sprawling: man-on-man chaos, a complete low block or a compromise in the middle - the Goldilocks defensive system.

What does that mean for the Munster final? Take Hayes. If he moves close to the Dingle goal for a kickout, does O’Connor follow him and take himself out as a target for Curran or contest the kickout and risk losing it, with Hayes left inside on a mismatch?

If Stephen Sherlock operates at centre-forward, how does his marker provide the necessary cover as a centre-back while also man-marking a lethal two-point threat? The best solution to all of that is to starve them off the ball.

So much of this funnels back to the heart of the field. Dingle and the Barrs both have the football to dazzle; the tie will hinge on the gruelling work that paves the way for it. It will be a Cork versus Kerry set-to, a red and blue street fight. Strap in.