Irish Examiner poll - Signs say coalition will be returned

WITH the Coalition under growing pressure, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern would be lying if he feigned disinterest in the findings of today’s Irish Examiner poll, the most up-to-date snapshot of how voters rate the political parties.

Three years ago, few predicted the Fianna Fáil-PD marriage would end up mired in problems ranging from the Eddie Hobbs factor and local election setbacks to ministerial controversies, plus a re-oriented opposition offering voters a tantalising prospect of alternative government.

Facing a general election in less than 18 months, Fianna Fáil will take solace from the national opinion poll conducted by Lansdowne Market Research.

Having held power for 18 of the past 20 years, the country’s biggest party seems to consist of a teflon-cum-asbestos alloy, making it impervious to criticism.

Especially surprising is that despite mounting blame this Government for Ireland’s rip-off culture, support levels for Fianna Fáil remain buoyant.

According to today’s poll, the party enjoys a 38% support level, giving it a three-point lead over the combined 35% backing for Fine Gael (23%) and the Labour Party (12%).

That will be a severe disappointment to the leaders of the proposed Fine Gael-Labour partnership unveiled at the Mullingar accord. From an opposition viewpoint, if these findings were echoed in the next election, the two parties would be in no position to form a government without the support of the Green Party (up two points from 2002 at 6%) and others.

But even after juggling the figures the combined strength of a blue, red and green rainbow would amount to 41%, two percentage points behind the Government parties combined total of 43%. At 5%, support for the PDs is up one point from 2002.

It is debatable whether the coalition has bounced back or has simply deflected the worst effects of the Eddie Hobbs Rip Off Ireland TV series. In pragmatic terms, however, the telling aspect of the poll is that while the gap has been closed somewhat between the existing coalition and the Fine Gael-led option, clear water still exists between the Government parties and the Fine Gael-Labour alternative.

Judging by Sinn Féin’s 10% support level, the party appears to have peaked yet the three points gained since 2002 will mean extra seats.

Surprisingly, while 52% felt Sinn Féin should go into government subject to varying conditions, including decommission, 39% said they should not go into power under any circumstances.

Nor was it all plain sailing for the Taoiseach in the beauty contest between party leaders. Some 36% of voters voiced dissatisfaction with Mr Ahern compared to 19% for Enda Kenny and only 18% for Pat Rabbitte.

Disappointment too for PD leader Mary Harney as only 37% were happy with her while 38% were dissatisfied and 31% found her ineffective in the Health brief.

Green Party leader Trevor Sargent has an image deficit with 30% not saying they don’t know how they feel about him.

Considering his meteoric rise in popularity, Sinn Féin’s Gerry Adams gets a satisfaction rating of only 31% nowadays while 34% were dissatisfied with him.

There is brighter news for Mr Ahern, whose overall satisfaction rating of 44% is four points higher than the 40% achieved by both Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte.

After their flattering performance in the 2002 election, when the Fine Gael vote collapsed, the coalition parties will face a much tougher contest next time out.

Yet, based on the findings of the Irish Examiner poll, all the signs are that Fianna Fáil and the PDs would be returned to power again, albeit by a narrow margin and with the help of independents, if a general election were held tomorrow.