Can Micheál Martin keep Fianna Fáil alive?
In June 1989, the Fianna Fáil party was panicking. Under the headline 'Middle Classes Desert Government', the detailed how Charlie Haughey's decision to call an election in the hope of returning a majority had backfired.
Instead of gaining seats, Fianna Fáil came back into the Dáil with a reduced headcount of four.
However, it's a situation that current Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin would grab with both hands as the disastrous 1989 election still saw the party secure 77 seats and 44% of first-preference votes.
Fianna Fáil is undoubtedly stuck at a crossroads and unable to find a way back for some years now. Members have long given up hope of a return to the heady days of Dev and Lemass during which the party became accustomed to back-to-back terms in office.
Up to the Bertie era of 2007, the party was achieving more than 40% of first-preference votes in general elections, before support went off a cliff — a fall it has never recovered from.
Since 2011, Fianna Fáil has been aimlessly fumbling its way through elections, failing to gain ground and grappling with an identity crisis.
After the 2020 election, a report compiled by junior minister Sean Fleming concluded that Fianna Fáil has become "indistinguishable" from Fine Gael, with the majority of its own members unclear about the party's distinct identity.
The report raised issues around leadership and the fact that the public feel the party is "not in tune with modern social issues in Ireland".
The conservative stance many elected members adopted on the Eighth Amendment also alienated younger voters who now see Sinn Féin as the party most aligned with their views and priorities.
In a telling remark, Disabilities Minister Anne Rabbitte recently admitted that in advocating for a no vote on abortion she was "behind the curve" and not "in touch" with her own constituents.
Among the 57 recommendations contained in the Fleming report was the need to "prioritise defining Fianna Fáil’s clear identity, that is distinct and differentiates us from others".
Over the past year, a commission headed up by Kildare TD James Lawless has been working to regain an identity for the Soldiers of Destiny.
Attendees at the ard fheis will this morning vote on the 12 new overarching aims and objectives that have been drawn up. These new bullet-point aspirations include a commitment to universal healthcare, provision of a home for all and a reform of public services.
Recommending that the objectives be accepted, Mr Lawless states: "Our party aligns to a 'left of centre' philosophy which is reflected throughout this document. We believe this position holds true both to our history and our future."
Of course, the identity of any political party is highly dependent on its leadership. As the rotating Taoiseach position pivots back to Fine Gael at the end of the year, Martin will face a new challenge.
The truth is, Martin has never been loved by his party in a way Ahern or even Cowen was in his earlier days. His party has tolerated him.
They like him, they respect that to his core, he is a dedicated public servant without an ounce of corruption which some of his predecessors suffered from.
Despite having served in Government under Bertie Ahern and then Brian Cowen since 1997, Martin by late 2010 had become deeply disenchanted by the party’s running of the country.
Encouraged by the likes of Billy Kelleher and others, Martin moved to oust Cowen only to be defeated.
However, Cowen’s hubris in seeking to reappoint six of his own ministers just weeks before a General Election blew up in his face and ultimately led to his demise.
Martin, rather than Brian Lenihan, was best placed to succeed and prevailed in the subsequent leadership race.
The 2011 general election was worse than feared for Fianna Fáil, returning with just 20 seats.
Martin, who had only three months previous suffered the tragic loss of his daughter Lena, faced the mammoth task of rebuilding the party, with persistent questions about whether Fianna Fáil was even viable anymore.
Devoid of TDs, money and coherence, the party having dominated and held power for so long, was now openly being referred to as a “minority force” in Irish politics.
For Martin, the death of Brian Lenihan a few months later at the age of 52 from pancreatic cancer, compounded the sense of failure which engulfed Fianna Fáil.
Worse for Martin, of the 19 TDs remaining, only a small handful were willing to put their shoulder to the wheel and begin the rebuilding process.
The worst part it all, and it is something that persists to today, is that Martin has sought to paint Fianna Fáil as a left-of-centre party for the common man, but his elected parliamentary party is very conservative. This has led to continuous tensions.
Martin’s aloof style of relying on his own inner team of Deirdre Gillane (his chief of staff), Pat McParland (special adviser) and the Czech-based Peter MacDonagh (nicknamed the Child of Prague), as opposed to his fellow TDs, has been a continuous complaint.
Despite defying expectations in the 2014, 2016, and 2019 elections, Martin has never truly controlled his party. He has never fully trusted them either.
But worse, after 11 years as leader, Martin has utterly failed to truly put his stamp on what Fianna Fáil is supposed to represent.
The major complaint is that the sense of drift that typified his early years as leader has not only continued in Government but worsened.
As for how the party's TDs and senators see their current stint in government, the attitude varies.
While some will point to Fianna Fáil's willingness to grapple with the two biggest crises afflicting the country — health and housing — others fear that the Fianna Fáil identity has been washed away in this historic coalition, especially coming after four years of confidence and supply.
Entering the coalition, Fianna Fáil was seen to be the most unstable of the coalition partners but has coped with the sacking and resignation of successive Agriculture ministers and the resignation of a junior minister, the resignation of a dyed-in-the-wool TD like Marc MacSharry and various scrutinies around its ministers.
At present, while many in the party believe that Micheál Martin should set out his departure date, no clear and viable challenge to him has emerged, much less a successor.
But all of that underscores that Fianna Fáilers are mostly somewhat satisfied with this term in office, if not blown away by it.
Indeed, this week's budget highlights the varying levels of satisfaction within the party.
While there was widespread praise for Education Minister Norma Foley's moves, particularly a €47m plan to provide schoolbooks to primary school children /url], and for Michael McGrath's handling of the country's purse strings, some TDs felt the budget lacked identity.
"It felt like a budget made by three very different parties and I don't think we got as big a say," said one TD, speaking to a larger concern that Fianna Fáil has felt "voiceless" in the coalition, despite holding the Taoiseach's office.
One senior source said that party can feel like it has "drifted" through the pandemic, being carried from crisis to crisis.
That perception of a lack of a signature Fianna Fáil initiative is held by a number of members, but others are more concerned about what's coming in 11 weeks.
Some TDs and senators point to recent polling which puts Fianna Fáil slightly ahead or close to even with Fine Gael. While that is, they argue, evidence that the job the party is doing in Government is one that is being appreciated, there is a worry that it may wash away when the Taoiseach's office changes hands.
"We have the Taoiseach now and we're doing well enough in the polls. But the changeover could be the Leo Show and then what?"
That changeover, and what happens in the aftermath, will be critical to the future.
Numerous backbench and senior TDs are adamant that a "serious conversation" needs to take place when Martin becomes Tanáiste.
They are hoping his focus will shift back to address party matters, but of course, some of his newly found spare time will be taken up with whatever ministerial role he decides to take on.
Most members appear willing to give some breathing time to allow the Cabinet reshuffle to settle but they are keen to get clarity on how the party will present itself to voters in the coming months, well in advance of a general election.
The frustration that it is not very easy to tell the difference between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil persists, even Micheál Martin was hesitant when asked about what separates the two parties on RTÉ radio recently.
The questions most TDs are asking themselves is whether the party can stand on its own in the next general election or should they sell themselves as a party that is willing to work with Sinn Fein, if that scenario arose.
It’s clear that members of Fianna Fáil don’t know themselves yet if that’s exactly what they should do.
The party can’t ignore the Sinn Féin surge, but there is also trepidation that Mary Lou’s crew will make drastic policy changes that have divided a nation on what the outcome will on people’s lives and the economy.
The Taoiseach has been cute in recent months to say he wouldn’t rule out going into Government with Sinn Féin but has made it abundantly clear he is at odds with many of their policies and slams them as anti-EU and even suggested the party is pro-Putin.
Both Martin and McDonald are not shy of throwing personal insults at one another publicly, which has been uncomfortable and shows a lack of respect for one another.
Therefore, if Fianna Fáil did decide to take a chance on Sinn Féin perhaps the responsible thing for Martin to do would be to step down as leader and give someone else a shot at revitalising the party, as well as holding Ms McDonald to task.
Many Fianna Fáil TDs feel the next leader should be from the greater Dublin area, with Jim O'Callaghan, Darragh O'Brien, and Jack Chambers all listed as contenders.
Opting for one of these candidates would give the party an urban edge, but the likes of Michael McGrath and even Dara Calleary are also popular among members.
In recent times a return of 'the Bert' into the party fold has been pushed by both the grassroots and some backbenchers.
Such a move would allow the party to capitalise on past achievements, especially with the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday agreement approaching, but it also risks reminding people of a past Fianna Fáil would prefer to forget.
With a housing crisis, record levels of homelessness, and a disastrous health system, many people feel they have no other choice but to give Sinn Fein a chance in the next general election.
Going into a coalition led by Taoiseach McDonald might be the only thing to keep Fianna Fáil alive.
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